Primeira Liga
Sp Braga vs 
Gil Vicente Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 50.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Sp Braga have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, Gil Vicente 0.8 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 50.8% for over 2.5 and 75.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. Sp Braga have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Gil Vicente in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.8% | 7.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 13.8% | 86.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 5.8% | 94.3% |
Team goal lines
81.6%
50.6%
24.3%
63.5%
26.8%
8.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 14.0% | 86.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.3% | 81.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Sp Braga goals scored per game2.0Sp Braga goals conceded per game100.0%Sp Braga Over 2.5 rate1.0Sp Braga 1st-half goals per game1.0Gil Vicente goals scored per game0.0Gil Vicente goals conceded per game0.0%Gil Vicente Over 2.5 rate0.0Gil Vicente 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
52.4%Both Teams to Score50.8%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 50.8% for three or more goals and 75.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Sp Braga favoured at 52.9%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Sp Braga to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sp Braga 2 · 1 draws · Gil Vicente 2 · 1.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 50.8% for Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente.
Will there be a first-half goal in Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 72.4%.
How often have Sp Braga gone over 2.5 recently?
Sp Braga have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Gil Vicente in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.