Serie A
Sassuolo vs 
Milan Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 48.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 60.3% for over 22.5 to 26.4% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.2%. Between the two sides, Sassuolo are the model’s pick to have more shots at 53.9%, with a level count at 6.1%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 60.3% | 39.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 26.4% | 73.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
66.5%
49.9%
34.4%
57.1%
39.9%
25.4%
Shot handicap
| Sassuolo line | Sassuolo | Milan |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| -2.5 | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| -0.5 | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| +0.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 34.0% | 66.0% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
8.2 / 8.2
7.0 / 6.5
This season (2026/27)
16.5Sassuolo shots per game16.0Sassuolo shots faced per game8.3Sassuolo first-half shots8.3Sassuolo second-half shots13.5Milan shots per game9.8Milan shots faced per game7.0Milan first-half shots6.5Milan second-half shotsTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Sassuolo.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
48.2%Over 24.5 shots49.9%Sassuolo over 12.5 shots39.9%Milan over 12.5 shots56.0%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Sassuolo over 12.5 shots sits at 49.9% and Milan at 39.9%. This season Sassuolo have averaged 16.5 shots a game and Milan 13.5. Sassuolo take 8.3 shots before half-time and 8.3 after, Milan 7.0 and 6.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Sassuolo vs Milan?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 48.2% for Sassuolo vs Milan.
Which team will have more shots in Sassuolo vs Milan?
The model rates Sassuolo to take more shots at 53.9%.
Do Sassuolo shoot more in the first or second half?
Sassuolo average 8.3 shots before half-time and 8.3 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
