Serie A
Sassuolo vs 
Milan Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 51.1%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Sassuolo have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, Milan 1.6 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 51.1% for over 2.5 and 76.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 goals a game. Sassuolo have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Milan in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.8% | 7.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| 4.5 goals | 14.0% | 86.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 5.8% | 94.2% |
Team goal lines
69.9%
33.7%
12.0%
78.1%
44.9%
19.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 8.0% | 92.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 23.6% | 76.4% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Sassuolo goals scored per game1.8Sassuolo goals conceded per game100.0%Sassuolo Over 2.5 rate0.5Sassuolo 1st-half goals per game2.0Milan goals scored per game0.8Milan goals conceded per game60.0%Milan Over 2.5 rate0.0Milan 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
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5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
55.2%Both Teams to Score51.1%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 51.1% for three or more goals and 76.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Milan favoured at 45.5%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Milan to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sassuolo 2 · 2 draws · Milan 1 · 4.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sassuolo vs Milan?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 51.1% for Sassuolo vs Milan.
Will there be a first-half goal in Sassuolo vs Milan?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 63.2%.
How often have Sassuolo gone over 2.5 recently?
Sassuolo have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Milan in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
