Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Juventus54.9%
Win probability · fair 1.82
Top signals
Draw or JuventusVery likely81.1%Fair 1.23
Over 1.5 goalsLikely70.1%Fair 1.43
Under 2.5 goalsClose call56.6%Fair 1.77
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Juventus heavy favourites at 55% when Cagliari meet Juventus in the Serie A on 11 October 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 43% with both teams to score at 46%. 2) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Cagliari, 2 draws and 2 for Juventus at 2.2 goals per match. 3) The run in: Cagliari arrive W5 D0 L1, Juventus W2 D2 L2. Alessandro Romano drives the home shot volume, 1.0 on target per 90. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Cagliari or draw45.2%@ 2.21
Over 9.5 corners44.9%@ 2.23
Over 2.5 goals43.4%@ 2.30
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners54.7%@ 1.83
Not both teams to score53.9%@ 1.86
Random finds
0-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.56
1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.97
0-2 correct score10.7%@ 9.33
Model vs market
Cagliari
18.9%
Draw
26.3%
Juventus
54.9%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely70.1%Fair 1.43
Over 2.5Unlikely43.4%Fair 2.30
BTTS · YesClose call46.1%Fair 2.17
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call54.7%Fair 1.83
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely44.9%Fair 2.23
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely35.8%Fair 2.79
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot27.9%Fair 3.58
Most cornersCagliari48.6%Juventus41.0%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely62.6%Fair 1.60
Over 24.5 shotsClose call50.7%Fair 1.97
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely39.0%Fair 2.56
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot28.5%Fair 3.50
Recent shot volume
Cagliari14.5 taken17.0 faced
Juventus19.5 taken8.3 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Cagliari (4 games)
4.2 / 8.0
Juventus (4 games)
7.2 / 11.0
Totals line guide
0.5·1.570.1%2.543.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.570.1%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
CagliariWWLWW
JuventusDWWDL
Last 5 meetings: Cagliari 1 · 2 draws · Juventus 2 · 2.2 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Alessandro RomanoCagliari · key player
To score13.3%7.52
1+ on target51.1%1.96
2+ shots26.5%3.77
Shots/90 1.4SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.2
Edon ZhegrovaJuventus · key player
To score14.1%7.09
1+ on target43.8%2.28
2+ shots39.6%2.53
Shots/90 3.31SoT/90 1.4Goals/90 0.37
Mattia FeliciCagliari · in form
To score6.0%16.67
1+ on target32.6%3.07
2+ shots11.4%8.77
Shots/90 1.3SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.14
Jeremie BogaJuventus · in form
To score12.6%7.94
1+ on target46.6%2.15
2+ shots37.9%2.64
Shots/90 2.54SoT/90 1.21Goals/90 0.26
Daniel MaldiniCagliari · in form
To score17.3%5.78
1+ on target38.1%2.62
2+ shots43.0%2.33
Shots/90 2.62SoT/90 0.86Goals/90 0.34
Nicolás GonzálezJuventus · in form
To score15.6%6.41
1+ on target55.7%1.80
2+ shots53.6%1.87
Shots/90 2.54SoT/90 1.15Goals/90 0.24
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Cagliari win4.87
Draw3.74
Juventus win1.90
Both teams to score2.17
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.43
Over 2.5 goals2.30
Over 3.5 goals4.45
Cagliari most4.87
Juventus most1.90
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.49
Over 8.5 corners1.78
Over 9.5 corners2.20
Over 10.5 corners2.82
Cagliari most2.05
Juventus most2.43
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.52
Over 3.5 cards2.23
Over 4.5 cards3.73
Over 5.5 cards6.99
Cagliari most2.39
Juventus most2.77
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.48
Over 7.5 SoT1.79
Over 8.5 SoT2.25
Over 9.5 SoT2.95
Cagliari most2.60
Juventus most2.02
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots1.97
Over 26.5 shots2.56
Over 28.5 shots3.50
Cagliari most1.96
Juventus most2.33
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.38
Over 22.5 fouls1.68
Over 24.5 fouls2.16
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
62.6%
Over 24.5
50.7%
Over 26.5
39.0%
Over 28.5
28.5%
Most: Cagliari
51.1%
Most: Juventus
42.8%
Cagliari Over 13.2
41.6%
Juventus Over 13.2
35.8%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
67.6%
Over 7.5
56.0%
Over 8.5
44.5%
Over 9.5
33.9%
Most: Cagliari
38.5%
Most: Juventus
49.6%
Cagliari Over 4.2
35.6%
Juventus Over 4.2
43.5%
Cards
Over 2.5
65.8%
Over 3.5
44.8%
Over 4.5
26.8%
Most: Cagliari
41.9%
Most: Juventus
36.2%
Cagliari Over 1.8
52.6%
Juventus Over 1.8
48.3%
Cagliari: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Alessandro Romano
1.4
1
0.2
51.1%
26.5%
13.3%
Mattia Felici
1.3
0.89
0.14
32.6%
11.4%
6.0%
Daniel Maldini
2.62
0.86
0.34
38.1%
43.0%
17.3%
Gennaro Borrelli
2.23
0.83
0.35
33.7%
30.3%
15.9%
Paul Mendy
3.1
0.78
0.39
35.0%
51.1%
19.4%
Juventus: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Edon Zhegrova
3.31
1.4
0.37
43.8%
39.6%
14.1%
Jeremie Boga
2.54
1.21
0.26
46.6%
37.9%
12.6%
Nicolás González
2.54
1.15
0.24
55.7%
53.6%
15.6%
Jonathan Christian David
2.52
1.13
0.49
56.1%
54.8%
30.0%
Kenan Yildiz
2.74
1.09
0.3
59.1%
65.8%
21.8%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Cagliari clean sheet
21.4%
Juventus clean sheet
41.9%
Cagliari win to nil
11.8%
Juventus win to nil
32.4%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
20.5%
draw
26.7%
away
52.7%
double_chance
1X
47.3%
12
73.3%
X2
79.5%
dnb
home
28.0%
away
72.0%
btts
yes
46.1%
no
53.9%
clean_sheet
home
21.3%
away
42.1%
win_to_nil
home
11.8%
away
32.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1
13.7%
home_by_2
5.2%
home_by_3plus
1.7%
away_by_1
24.8%
away_by_2
16.4%
away_by_3plus
11.6%
correct_score
0-0
9.6%
0-1
13.2%
0-2
10.7%
0-3
5.6%
0-4
2.2%
0-5
0.7%
1-0
7.2%
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.2%
1-3
4.8%
1-4
1.9%
1-5
0.6%
2-0
3.4%
2-1
5.2%
2-2
4.0%
2-3
2.1%
2-4
0.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-0
1.0%
3-1
1.5%
3-2
1.2%
3-3
0.6%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
4-1
0.3%
4-2
0.3%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.0%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.0%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.6%
likeliest_score
h
0.0%
a
100.0%
p
13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
90.5%
under_0.5
9.6%
over_1.5
70.1%
under_1.5
29.9%
over_2.5
43.4%
under_2.5
56.6%
over_3.5
22.5%
under_3.5
77.6%
over_4.5
9.8%
under_4.5
90.2%
over_5.5
3.7%
under_5.5
96.3%
odd_even
odd
48.4%
even
51.6%
team_home
over_0.5
57.9%
under_0.5
42.1%
over_1.5
21.5%
under_1.5
78.5%
over_2.5
5.8%
under_2.5
94.2%
team_away
over_0.5
78.7%
under_0.5
21.3%
over_1.5
45.8%
under_1.5
54.2%
over_2.5
20.4%
under_2.5
79.6%
most
home
20.5%
draw
26.7%
away
52.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
1.7%
away_+2.5
98.3%
home_-1.5
6.9%
away_+1.5
93.1%
home_-0.5
20.5%
away_+0.5
79.5%
home_+0.5
47.3%
away_-0.5
52.7%
home_+1.5
72.0%
away_-1.5
28.0%
home_+2.5
88.4%
away_-2.5
11.6%
total_exact
exact_0
9.6%
exact_1
20.4%
exact_2
26.7%
exact_3
21.0%
exact_4
12.7%
exact_5
6.1%
exact_6
2.5%
exact_7plus
1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
16.6%
draw
47.5%
away
35.9%
total
over_0.5
60.7%
under_0.5
39.3%
over_1.5
24.0%
under_1.5
76.0%
over_2.5
6.9%
under_2.5
93.1%
btts
yes
12.7%
no
87.3%
total_exact
exact_0
39.3%
exact_1
36.7%
exact_2
17.1%
exact_3
5.3%
exact_4plus
1.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
23.1%
draw
37.8%
away
39.1%
total
over_0.5
75.3%
under_0.5
24.7%
over_1.5
40.8%
under_1.5
59.3%
over_2.5
16.6%
under_2.5
83.4%
btts
yes
24.4%
no
75.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
10.8%
H/D
3.9%
H/A
2.0%
D/H
11.0%
D/D
17.9%
D/A
18.6%
A/H
1.5%
A/D
5.0%
A/A
29.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
67.2%
under_7.5
32.8%
over_8.5
56.3%
under_8.5
43.7%
over_9.5
45.5%
under_9.5
54.5%
over_10.5
35.5%
under_10.5
64.5%
over_11.5
26.8%
under_11.5
73.3%
over_12.5
19.5%
under_12.5
80.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
65.1%
under_3.5
34.9%
over_4.5
50.4%
under_4.5
49.6%
over_5.5
36.9%
under_5.5
63.1%
team_away
over_3.5
59.9%
under_3.5
40.1%
over_4.5
44.6%
under_4.5
55.4%
over_5.5
31.4%
under_5.5
68.6%
most
home
48.7%
draw
10.2%
away
41.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.5%
away_+3.5
78.5%
home_-1.5
38.7%
away_+1.5
61.3%
home_-0.5
48.7%
away_+0.5
51.3%
home_+0.5
58.9%
away_-0.5
41.1%
home_+1.5
68.5%
away_-1.5
31.5%
home_+3.5
83.8%
away_-3.5
16.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
62.6%
under_22.5
37.4%
over_24.5
50.7%
under_24.5
49.3%
over_26.5
39.0%
under_26.5
61.0%
over_28.5
28.5%
under_28.5
71.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
66.3%
under_10.5
33.7%
over_12.5
49.7%
under_12.5
50.3%
over_14.5
34.2%
under_14.5
65.8%
team_away
over_10.5
60.8%
under_10.5
39.2%
over_12.5
43.7%
under_12.5
56.3%
over_14.5
28.7%
under_14.5
71.3%
most
home
51.1%
draw
6.1%
away
42.8%
handicap
home_-4.5
28.1%
away_+4.5
71.9%
home_-2.5
39.1%
away_+2.5
60.9%
home_-0.5
51.1%
away_+0.5
48.9%
home_+0.5
57.2%
away_-0.5
42.8%
home_+2.5
68.6%
away_-2.5
31.4%
home_+4.5
78.5%
away_-4.5
21.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
67.6%
under_6.5
32.4%
over_7.5
56.0%
under_7.5
44.1%
over_8.5
44.5%
under_8.5
55.5%
over_9.5
34.0%
under_9.5
66.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
51.7%
under_3.5
48.3%
over_4.5
35.6%
under_4.5
64.5%
over_5.5
22.8%
under_5.5
77.2%
team_away
over_3.5
59.5%
under_3.5
40.5%
over_4.5
43.5%
under_4.5
56.5%
over_5.5
29.9%
under_5.5
70.1%
most
home
38.5%
draw
12.0%
away
49.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
18.6%
away_+2.5
81.4%
home_-0.5
38.5%
away_+0.5
61.5%
home_+0.5
50.4%
away_-0.5
49.6%
home_+2.5
72.8%
away_-2.5
27.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
65.8%
under_2.5
34.2%
over_3.5
44.8%
under_3.5
55.2%
over_4.5
26.8%
under_4.5
73.2%
over_5.5
14.3%
under_5.5
85.7%
odd_even
odd
49.9%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
52.6%
under_1.5
47.4%
over_2.5
27.0%
under_2.5
73.0%
team_away
over_1.5
48.3%
under_1.5
51.7%
over_2.5
23.3%
under_2.5
76.7%
most
home
41.9%
draw
22.0%
away
36.2%
handicap
home_-1.5
22.8%
away_+1.5
77.2%
home_-0.5
41.9%
away_+0.5
58.1%
home_+0.5
63.8%
away_-0.5
36.2%
home_+1.5
81.5%
away_-1.5
18.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
72.3%
under_20.5
27.7%
over_22.5
59.6%
under_22.5
40.4%
over_24.5
46.3%
under_24.5
53.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
64.6%
under_9.5
35.4%
over_11.5
44.8%
under_11.5
55.2%
over_13.5
27.5%
under_13.5
72.5%
team_away
over_9.5
77.5%
under_9.5
22.5%
over_11.5
60.5%
under_11.5
39.5%
over_13.5
42.5%
under_13.5
57.5%
most
home
35.7%
draw
6.5%
away
57.8%
handicap
home_-3.5
19.1%
away_+3.5
80.9%
home_-0.5
35.7%
away_+0.5
64.3%
home_+2.5
55.7%
away_-2.5
44.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
9.6%
no
90.4%
home
yes
4.4%
no
95.6%
away
yes
5.5%
no
94.5%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Serie A
Cagliari
Juventus