Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Milan45.5%
Win probability · fair 2.20
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely76.1%Fair 1.31
Draw or MilanLikely71.5%Fair 1.40
Both teams to scoreClose call55.2%Fair 1.81
Model read
▾
The model leans Milan at 46% when Sassuolo host Milan in the Serie A on 11 October 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. No strong lean on goals (51% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Sassuolo, 2 draws and 1 for Milan, averaging 4.0 goals a game. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Sassuolo against W3 D2 L1 for Milan. For shots markets, Domenico Berardi is the obvious watch at 1.1 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Milan win45.5%@ 2.20
Over 9.5 corners40.0%@ 2.50
Over 10.5 corners31.2%@ 3.21
Medium risk
Sassuolo or draw54.5%@ 1.83
Over 2.5 goals51.1%@ 1.96
Over 8.5 corners49.8%@ 2.01
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.93
0-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.63
1-2 correct score9.1%@ 10.95
Model vs market
Sassuolo
28.5%
Draw
26.0%
Milan
45.5%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely76.1%Fair 1.31
Over 2.5Close call51.1%Fair 1.96
BTTS · YesClose call55.2%Fair 1.81
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersClose call49.8%Fair 2.01
Over 9.5 cornersUnlikely40.0%Fair 2.50
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely31.2%Fair 3.21
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot23.7%Fair 4.22
Most cornersSassuolo49.6%Milan39.6%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely60.3%Fair 1.66
Over 24.5 shotsClose call48.2%Fair 2.08
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely36.6%Fair 2.73
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot26.4%Fair 3.79
Recent shot volume
Sassuolo14.5 taken15.2 faced
Milan13.0 taken12.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Sassuolo (4 games)
8.2 / 8.2
Milan (4 games)
7.0 / 6.5
Totals line guide
0.5·1.576.1%2.551.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.1%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
SassuoloLLWDW
MilanLWWDD
Last 5 meetings: Sassuolo 2 · 2 draws · Milan 1 · 4.0 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Domenico BerardiSassuolo · key player
To score26.1%3.83
1+ on target60.6%1.65
2+ shots48.6%2.06
Shots/90 2SoT/90 1.14Goals/90 0.37
Gonçalo RamosMilan · key player
To score26.1%3.83
1+ on target66.3%1.51
2+ shots66.2%1.51
Shots/90 4.13SoT/90 1.98Goals/90 0.55
Benjamín DomínguezSassuolo · in form
To score6.8%14.71
1+ on target37.3%2.68
2+ shots27.3%3.66
Shots/90 2.04SoT/90 0.93Goals/90 0.14
Christian PulisicMilan · in form
To score24.9%4.02
1+ on target52.4%1.91
2+ shots50.9%1.96
Shots/90 2.44SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.41
Armand LaurienteSassuolo · in form
To score14.8%6.76
1+ on target51.4%1.95
2+ shots61.9%1.62
Shots/90 2.61SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.2
Samuel ChukwuezeMilan · in form
To score11.0%9.09
1+ on target29.8%3.36
2+ shots32.9%3.04
Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 0.73Goals/90 0.24
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Sassuolo win3.40
Draw3.77
Milan win2.27
Both teams to score1.81
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.96
Over 3.5 goals3.44
Sassuolo most3.40
Milan most2.27
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.60
Over 8.5 corners1.96
Over 9.5 corners2.49
Over 10.5 corners3.29
Sassuolo most2.01
Milan most2.52
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.91
Over 4.5 cards2.96
Over 5.5 cards5.12
Sassuolo most2.71
Milan most2.36
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.48
Over 7.5 SoT1.79
Over 8.5 SoT2.25
Over 9.5 SoT2.94
Sassuolo most2.27
Milan most2.28
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.66
Over 24.5 shots2.08
Over 26.5 shots2.73
Over 28.5 shots3.79
Sassuolo most1.85
Milan most2.50
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.56
Over 22.5 fouls1.99
Over 24.5 fouls2.70
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
60.3%
Over 24.5
48.2%
Over 26.5
36.6%
Over 28.5
26.4%
Most: Sassuolo
53.9%
Most: Milan
40.0%
Sassuolo Over 13.2
41.8%
Milan Over 13.2
32.2%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
67.6%
Over 7.5
56.0%
Over 8.5
44.5%
Over 9.5
34.0%
Most: Sassuolo
44.1%
Most: Milan
43.9%
Sassuolo Over 4.2
39.7%
Milan Over 4.2
39.6%
Cards
Over 2.5
72.2%
Over 3.5
52.4%
Over 4.5
33.8%
Most: Sassuolo
36.9%
Most: Milan
42.4%
Sassuolo Over 1.8
53.8%
Milan Over 1.8
57.8%
Sassuolo: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Domenico Berardi
2
1.14
0.37
60.6%
48.6%
26.1%
Benjamín Domínguez
2.04
0.93
0.14
37.3%
27.3%
6.8%
Armand Lauriente
2.61
0.9
0.2
51.4%
61.9%
14.8%
Kieron Bowie
2.51
0.84
0.3
52.3%
64.9%
23.2%
Cristian Volpato
1.87
0.79
0.22
33.4%
25.0%
10.7%
Milan: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Gonçalo Ramos
4.13
1.98
0.55
66.3%
66.2%
26.1%
Christian Pulisic
2.44
1.06
0.41
52.4%
50.9%
24.9%
Samuel Chukwueze
2.43
0.73
0.24
29.8%
32.9%
11.0%
Omari Hutchinson
1.49
0.62
0.09
36.9%
30.3%
6.5%
Adrien Rabiot
1.66
0.6
0.28
43.1%
46.3%
23.2%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Sassuolo clean sheet
21.9%
Milan clean sheet
30.0%
Sassuolo win to nil
14.7%
Milan win to nil
22.8%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
29.4%
draw
26.5%
away
44.1%
double_chance
1X
55.9%
12
73.5%
X2
70.6%
dnb
home
40.0%
away
60.0%
btts
yes
55.2%
no
44.8%
clean_sheet
home
21.9%
away
30.1%
win_to_nil
home
14.7%
away
23.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1
17.1%
home_by_2
8.4%
home_by_3plus
4.0%
away_by_1
21.8%
away_by_2
13.4%
away_by_3plus
8.9%
correct_score
0-0
7.2%
0-1
9.4%
0-2
7.6%
0-3
3.9%
0-4
1.5%
0-5
0.4%
1-0
7.3%
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.1%
1-3
4.6%
1-4
1.8%
1-5
0.5%
2-0
4.7%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
5.5%
2-3
2.8%
2-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-0
1.9%
3-1
2.9%
3-2
2.2%
3-3
1.1%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
0.6%
4-1
0.9%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.6%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
92.8%
under_0.5
7.2%
over_1.5
76.1%
under_1.5
23.9%
over_2.5
51.1%
under_2.5
48.9%
over_3.5
29.0%
under_3.5
71.0%
over_4.5
14.0%
under_4.5
86.0%
over_5.5
5.8%
under_5.5
94.2%
odd_even
odd
48.6%
even
51.4%
team_home
over_0.5
69.9%
under_0.5
30.1%
over_1.5
33.7%
under_1.5
66.3%
over_2.5
12.0%
under_2.5
87.9%
team_away
over_0.5
78.1%
under_0.5
21.9%
over_1.5
44.9%
under_1.5
55.1%
over_2.5
19.6%
under_2.5
80.4%
most
home
29.4%
draw
26.5%
away
44.1%
handicap
home_-2.5
4.0%
away_+2.5
96.0%
home_-1.5
12.4%
away_+1.5
87.6%
home_-0.5
29.4%
away_+0.5
70.6%
home_+0.5
55.9%
away_-0.5
44.1%
home_+1.5
77.7%
away_-1.5
22.3%
home_+2.5
91.1%
away_-2.5
8.9%
total_exact
exact_0
7.2%
exact_1
16.7%
exact_2
25.0%
exact_3
22.1%
exact_4
15.0%
exact_5
8.2%
exact_6
3.7%
exact_7plus
2.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
26.8%
draw
46.6%
away
26.6%
total
over_0.5
63.2%
under_0.5
36.8%
over_1.5
26.4%
under_1.5
73.6%
over_2.5
8.0%
under_2.5
92.0%
btts
yes
15.5%
no
84.6%
total_exact
exact_0
36.8%
exact_1
36.8%
exact_2
18.4%
exact_3
6.1%
exact_4plus
1.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
23.7%
draw
33.6%
away
42.8%
total
over_0.5
81.3%
under_0.5
18.7%
over_1.5
49.9%
under_1.5
50.1%
over_2.5
23.6%
under_2.5
76.4%
btts
yes
30.9%
no
69.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
17.0%
H/D
6.0%
H/A
3.8%
D/H
11.0%
D/D
15.7%
D/A
19.9%
A/H
1.4%
A/D
3.8%
A/A
21.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
62.3%
under_7.5
37.7%
over_8.5
51.0%
under_8.5
49.0%
over_9.5
40.1%
under_9.5
59.9%
over_10.5
30.4%
under_10.5
69.6%
over_11.5
22.2%
under_11.5
77.8%
over_12.5
15.7%
under_12.5
84.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
62.7%
under_3.5
37.3%
over_4.5
47.6%
under_4.5
52.4%
over_5.5
34.2%
under_5.5
65.8%
team_away
over_3.5
55.6%
under_3.5
44.4%
over_4.5
40.1%
under_4.5
60.0%
over_5.5
27.2%
under_5.5
72.8%
most
home
49.7%
draw
10.6%
away
39.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
21.4%
away_+3.5
78.6%
home_-1.5
39.2%
away_+1.5
60.8%
home_-0.5
49.7%
away_+0.5
50.3%
home_+0.5
60.3%
away_-0.5
39.7%
home_+1.5
70.2%
away_-1.5
29.8%
home_+3.5
85.4%
away_-3.5
14.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
60.3%
under_22.5
39.8%
over_24.5
48.2%
under_24.5
51.8%
over_26.5
36.6%
under_26.5
63.4%
over_28.5
26.4%
under_28.5
73.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
66.5%
under_10.5
33.5%
over_12.5
49.9%
under_12.5
50.1%
over_14.5
34.4%
under_14.5
65.6%
team_away
over_10.5
57.1%
under_10.5
42.9%
over_12.5
39.9%
under_12.5
60.1%
over_14.5
25.4%
under_14.5
74.6%
most
home
53.9%
draw
6.1%
away
40.0%
handicap
home_-4.5
30.3%
away_+4.5
69.7%
home_-2.5
41.7%
away_+2.5
58.3%
home_-0.5
53.9%
away_+0.5
46.1%
home_+0.5
60.0%
away_-0.5
40.0%
home_+2.5
71.3%
away_-2.5
28.7%
home_+4.5
80.7%
away_-4.5
19.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
67.6%
under_6.5
32.4%
over_7.5
56.0%
under_7.5
44.0%
over_8.5
44.5%
under_8.5
55.5%
over_9.5
34.0%
under_9.5
66.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
55.8%
under_3.5
44.2%
over_4.5
39.7%
under_4.5
60.3%
over_5.5
26.4%
under_5.5
73.6%
team_away
over_3.5
55.7%
under_3.5
44.3%
over_4.5
39.6%
under_4.5
60.4%
over_5.5
26.3%
under_5.5
73.7%
most
home
44.1%
draw
12.0%
away
43.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
22.8%
away_+2.5
77.2%
home_-0.5
44.1%
away_+0.5
55.9%
home_+0.5
56.1%
away_-0.5
43.9%
home_+2.5
77.4%
away_-2.5
22.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
72.2%
under_2.5
27.8%
over_3.5
52.4%
under_3.5
47.6%
over_4.5
33.8%
under_4.5
66.2%
over_5.5
19.5%
under_5.5
80.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
53.8%
under_1.5
46.2%
over_2.5
28.1%
under_2.5
71.9%
team_away
over_1.5
57.8%
under_1.5
42.2%
over_2.5
31.9%
under_2.5
68.1%
most
home
36.9%
draw
20.6%
away
42.4%
handicap
home_-1.5
19.9%
away_+1.5
80.2%
home_-0.5
36.9%
away_+0.5
63.1%
home_+0.5
57.6%
away_-0.5
42.4%
home_+1.5
75.9%
away_-1.5
24.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
64.1%
under_20.5
35.9%
over_22.5
50.3%
under_22.5
49.7%
over_24.5
37.0%
under_24.5
63.0%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
64.7%
under_9.5
35.3%
over_11.5
44.9%
under_11.5
55.1%
over_13.5
27.6%
under_13.5
72.4%
team_away
over_9.5
67.0%
under_9.5
33.0%
over_11.5
47.6%
under_11.5
52.4%
over_13.5
29.9%
under_13.5
70.1%
most
home
44.6%
draw
7.0%
away
48.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
25.4%
away_+3.5
74.6%
home_-0.5
44.6%
away_+0.5
55.4%
home_+2.5
65.3%
away_-2.5
34.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
10.9%
no
89.1%
home
yes
3.2%
no
96.8%
away
yes
7.9%
no
92.1%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Serie A
Sassuolo
Milan