ChampionshipQueens Park Rangers vs Preston North End Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 50.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 71.6% for over 2.5 to 17.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.7%. Head to head on cards, Preston North End are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.0%, with a level count at 21.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.1% | 82.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
49.5%
23.3%
60.6%
33.5%
Card handicap
| Queens Park Rangers line | Queens Park Rangers | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.5% | 84.5% |
| -0.5 | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| +0.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| +1.5 | 73.1% | 27.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.1% | 70.9% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Queens Park Rangers vs Preston North End. Slightly more cards are projected for Preston North End for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
50.7%Over 3.5 cards9.5%Any red card49.5%Queens Park Rangers over 1.5 cards60.6%Preston North End over 1.5 cards43.4%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Queens Park Rangers over 1.5 cards sits at 49.5% and Preston North End at 60.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.5% (Queens Park Rangers 3.8%, Preston North End 5.9%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Queens Park Rangers vs Preston North End?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.7% for Queens Park Rangers vs Preston North End.
Will there be a red card in Queens Park Rangers vs Preston North End?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Queens Park Rangers vs Preston North End?
Before kickoff, the model rated Preston North End to pick up more cards at 47.0%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
