Championship
Norwich vs Bolton Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.8% for over 2.5 to 19.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.5%. Between the two sides, Bolton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.6%, with a level count at 20.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.1% | 65.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.1% | 80.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
51.9%
25.4%
62.1%
35.1%
Card handicap
| Norwich line | Norwich | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.3% | 83.7% |
| -0.5 | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| +0.5 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| +1.5 | 73.0% | 27.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 30.0% | 70.0% |
This season (2026/27)
2.9Norwich cards per game11.3Norwich fouls per game1.9Bolton cards per game10.9Bolton fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Norwich vs Bolton. The model leans toward Bolton for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.5%Over 3.5 cards17.4%Any red card51.9%Norwich over 1.5 cards62.1%Bolton over 1.5 cards44.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Norwich over 1.5 cards sits at 51.9% and Bolton at 62.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.4% (Norwich 6.8%, Bolton 11.4%). This season Norwich have averaged 2.9 cards a game and Bolton 1.9.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Norwich vs Bolton?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.5% for Norwich vs Bolton.
Will there be a red card in Norwich vs Bolton?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Norwich vs Bolton?
The model rates Bolton to pick up more cards at 46.6%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
