ChampionshipPreston North End vs Millwall Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 47.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 68.9% for over 2.5 to 15.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.5%. Head to head on cards, Millwall are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.5%, with a level count at 21.8%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 68.9% | 31.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.0% | 85.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.4%
21.6%
58.2%
31.2%
Card handicap
| Preston North End line | Preston North End | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.2% | 84.8% |
| -0.5 | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| +0.5 | 53.6% | 46.5% |
| +1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.3% | 57.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.1% | 71.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Millwall cards per game12.4Millwall fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Preston North End vs Millwall. Slightly more cards are projected for Millwall for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
47.5%Over 3.5 cards15.1%Any red card47.4%Preston North End over 1.5 cards58.2%Millwall over 1.5 cards42.3%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Preston North End over 1.5 cards sits at 47.4% and Millwall at 58.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.1% (Preston North End 7.8%, Millwall 8.0%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Preston North End vs Millwall?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 47.5% for Preston North End vs Millwall.
Will there be a red card in Preston North End vs Millwall?
The model rates a red card for either side at 15.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Preston North End vs Millwall?
The model rates Millwall to pick up more cards at 46.5%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,168 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
