Ligue 1
Paris SG vs 
Monaco Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 59.0% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 83.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 41.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 63.2% for over 2.5 to 11.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.0%. Head to head on cards, Monaco are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 22.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 23.0% | 77.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 11.2% | 88.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
42.8%
18.0%
53.7%
26.9%
Card handicap
| Paris SG line | Paris SG | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.4% | 85.7% |
| -0.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% |
| +0.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| +1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.7% | 72.3% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Paris SG vs Monaco. Slightly more cards are projected for Monaco for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
41.0%Over 3.5 cards16.2%Any red card42.8%Paris SG over 1.5 cards53.7%Monaco over 1.5 cards41.1%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Paris SG over 1.5 cards sits at 42.8% and Monaco at 53.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.2% (Paris SG 6.0%, Monaco 10.9%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Paris SG vs Monaco?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 41.0% for Paris SG vs Monaco.
Will there be a red card in Paris SG vs Monaco?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Paris SG vs Monaco?
Before kickoff, the model rated Monaco to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 22.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.