Ligue 1
Paris FC vs 
Nice Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 50.9% and it landed (1 in the match). We called No at 84.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 49.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 70.2% for over 2.5 to 16.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.1%. Between the two sides, Paris FC are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 39.3%, with a level count at 21.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.9% | 70.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.0% | 84.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.3%
27.5%
54.0%
27.2%
Card handicap
| Paris FC line | Paris FC | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.8% | 79.3% |
| -0.5 | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| +0.5 | 61.2% | 38.9% |
| +1.5 | 79.6% | 20.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.2% | 64.8% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Paris FC vs Nice. Slightly more cards are projected for Paris FC for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
49.1%Over 3.5 cards15.2%Any red card54.3%Paris FC over 1.5 cards54.0%Nice over 1.5 cards49.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Paris FC over 1.5 cards sits at 54.3% and Nice at 54.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.2% (Paris FC 9.8%, Nice 6.0%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Paris FC vs Nice?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 49.1% for Paris FC vs Nice.
Will there be a red card in Paris FC vs Nice?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Paris FC vs Nice?
Before kickoff, the model rated Paris FC to pick up more cards at 39.3%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.