Monaco vs Marseille prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Monaco vs Marseille: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Ligue 1
Monaco

DWLLW

Full time2-0Sun, 30 Aug 202619:45UK26°C · Clear
Marseille

DLWWW

Model’s top convictions

84%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Both teams to score

64%

Monaco or draw

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Monaco 2-0 Marseille
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Monaco at 40.4%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 63.7% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 84.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 58.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 65.5% and it missed. We called Yes at 68.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 89.7% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 54.3% and it missed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 53.5% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.1% and it landed (24 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 65.6% and it missed (7 shots on target). We called No at 79.7% and it landed.

Match data Monaco Marseille
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 11 13
Shots, 1st half 8 3
Shots, 2nd half 3 10
Shots on target 5 2
Corners 5 7
Yellow cards 4 0
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 9 10
Expected goals (xG) 1.61 1.25

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MonacoWin probability
40.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.18
Both teams to score65.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.53
Monaco or draw64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55

Model read

▾

Monaco versus Marseille in the Ligue 1 on 30 August 2026 is finely balanced. Monaco edge it at 40%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 40%. • The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 66%. • Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Monaco against W3 D1 L2 for Marseille. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Monaco, 1 draws and 2 for Marseille, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Anssumane Fati drives the home shot volume, 2.0 on target per 90. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.0%@ 2.22
Marseille win35.6%@ 2.81
Over 10.5 corners34.9%@ 2.87
Medium risk

Draw or Marseille59.6%@ 1.68
Over 8.5 corners56.0%@ 1.79
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.6%@ 9.45
2-1 correct score8.5%@ 11.76
1-2 correct score8.0%@ 12.44

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Monaco

40.4%+0.5%

Draw

24.0%-1.4%

Marseille

35.6%+0.9%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.009 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.4%

High probability

Over 2.563.7%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes65.5%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.0%

Good chance

Over 9.545.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.1%

Low chance

Most cornersMonaco51.7%Marseille37.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.6%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.1%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.4%2.563.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.563.7%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

MonacoDWLLW
MarseilleDLWWW

Last 5 meetings: Monaco 2 · 1 draws · Marseille 2 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-04-05Monaco 2-1 Marseille
2025-12-14Marseille 1-0 Monaco
2025-04-12Monaco 3-0 Marseille
2024-12-01Marseille 2-1 Monaco
2024-01-27Marseille 2-2 Monaco

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MonacoMarseille
League position#5 of 18#1 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-01-0-0
Current streakW1W1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Anssumane FatiMonaco · key player
To score35.7%

@ 2.80

1+ on target61.7%

@ 1.62

2+ shots51.3%

@ 1.95

Shots/90 3.66SoT/90 2.04Goals/90 0.94
Mason GreenwoodMarseille · key player
To score42.2%

@ 2.37

1+ on target78.7%

@ 1.27

2+ shots87.2%

@ 1.15

Shots/90 3.98SoT/90 1.72Goals/90 0.61
George IlenikhenaMonaco · in form
To score13.1%

@ 7.63

1+ on target34.1%

@ 2.93

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 3.28SoT/90 1.37Goals/90 0.46
Jonathan RoweMarseille · in form
To score10.1%

@ 9.90

1+ on target41.4%

@ 2.42

2+ shots40.6%

@ 2.46

Shots/90 4.43SoT/90 1.7Goals/90 0.34
Folarin BalogunMonaco · in form
To score33.3%

@ 3.00

1+ on target61.4%

@ 1.63

2+ shots70.9%

@ 1.41

Shots/90 3.31SoT/90 1.27Goals/90 0.54
Amine GouiriMarseille · in form
To score39.4%

@ 2.54

1+ on target67.9%

@ 1.47

2+ shots70.2%

@ 1.42

Shots/90 3.32SoT/90 1.54Goals/90 0.68

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Monaco win2.402.47
Draw3.704.16
Marseille win2.752.81
Over 2.5 goals1.571.57
Under 2.5 goals2.382.75

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Monaco win2.51
Draw4.16
Marseille win2.77
Both teams to score1.53

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.18
Over 2.5 goals1.57
Over 3.5 goals2.40
Over 4.5 goals4.25
Monaco most2.51
Marseille most2.77

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.72
Over 9.5 corners2.19
Over 10.5 corners2.92
Monaco most1.93
Marseille most2.69

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.36
Over 3.5 cards1.87
Over 4.5 cards2.94
Over 5.5 cards5.25
Monaco most3.11
Marseille most2.13

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.30
Over 7.5 SoT1.53
Over 8.5 SoT1.87
Over 9.5 SoT2.41
Monaco most2.18
Marseille most2.39

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.62
Over 24.5 shots2.04
Over 26.5 shots2.72
Over 28.5 shots3.83
Monaco most1.84
Marseille most2.54

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.40
Over 22.5 fouls1.73
Over 24.5 fouls2.31
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.8% Over 7.5 65.6% Over 8.5 53.4% Over 9.5 41.4%
Most: Monaco 45.8% Most: Marseille 41.8%
Monaco Over 4.2 47.4% Marseille Over 4.2 44.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.8% Over 3.5 53.5% Over 4.5 34.0%
Most: Monaco 32.2% Most: Marseille 47.0%
Monaco Over 1.8 51.6% Marseille Over 1.8 62.3%

Monaco: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Anssumane Fati 3.66 2.04 0.94 61.7% 51.3% 35.7%
George Ilenikhena 3.28 1.37 0.46 34.1% 26.4% 13.1%
Folarin Balogun 3.31 1.27 0.54 61.4% 70.9% 33.3%
Mika Biereth 2.38 1.17 0.59 46.4% 36.3% 27.0%
Ben Seghir 3.03 0.99 0.28 42.0% 49.6% 14.3%

Marseille: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Mason Greenwood 3.98 1.72 0.61 78.7% 87.2% 42.2%
Jonathan Rowe 4.43 1.7 0.34 41.4% 40.6% 10.1%
Amine Gouiri 3.32 1.54 0.68 67.9% 70.2% 39.4%
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 2.6 1.39 0.43 65.6% 59.3% 28.1%
Igor Paixão 2.59 1.05 0.27 53.7% 56.6% 18.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Monaco clean sheet 20.1%
Marseille clean sheet 18.4%
Monaco win to nil 15.9%
Marseille win to nil 14.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.9% draw 24.1% away 36.1%
double_chance
1X 63.9% 12 75.9% X2 60.1%
dnb
home 52.5% away 47.5%
btts
yes 65.5% no 34.5%
clean_sheet
home 20.3% away 18.5%
win_to_nil
home 16.0% away 14.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.1% home_by_2 12.1% home_by_3plus 8.7%
away_by_1 18.1% away_by_2 10.8% away_by_3plus 7.2%
correct_score
0-0 4.3% 0-1 5.5% 0-2 4.8%
0-3 2.5% 0-4 1.0% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 5.8% 1-1 10.6% 1-2 8.0%
1-3 4.3% 1-4 1.7% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.3% 2-1 8.5% 2-2 6.8%
2-3 3.6% 2-4 1.5% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 3.0% 3-1 4.8% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 2.0% 3-4 0.8% 3-5 0.3%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 2.0% 4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.7% under_0.5 4.3% over_1.5 84.4%
under_1.5 15.6% over_2.5 63.7% under_2.5 36.3%
over_3.5 41.7% under_3.5 58.4% over_4.5 23.5%
under_4.5 76.5% over_5.5 11.6% under_5.5 88.4%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 81.5% under_0.5 18.5% over_1.5 50.3%
under_1.5 49.7% over_2.5 24.0% under_2.5 76.0%
team_away
over_0.5 79.7% under_0.5 20.3% over_1.5 47.4%
under_1.5 52.6% over_2.5 21.6% under_2.5 78.4%
most
home 39.9% draw 24.1% away 36.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.7% away_+2.5 91.3% home_-1.5 20.8%
away_+1.5 79.3% home_-0.5 39.9% away_+0.5 60.1%
home_+0.5 63.9% away_-0.5 36.1% home_+1.5 82.0%
away_-1.5 18.0% home_+2.5 92.8% away_-2.5 7.2%
total_exact
exact_0 4.3% exact_1 11.3% exact_2 20.7%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 18.2% exact_5 11.9%
exact_6 6.5% exact_7plus 5.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.2% draw 42.9% away 31.0%
total
over_0.5 68.5% under_0.5 31.5% over_1.5 32.1%
under_1.5 67.9% over_2.5 11.1% under_2.5 88.9%
btts
yes 19.2% no 80.8%
total_exact
exact_0 31.5% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 21.0%
exact_3 8.1% exact_4plus 3.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.7% draw 28.4% away 30.9%
total
over_0.5 89.7% under_0.5 10.3% over_1.5 66.4%
under_1.5 33.7% over_2.5 39.8% under_2.5 60.3%
btts
yes 45.9% no 54.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.4% H/D 4.3% H/A 2.5%
D/H 17.5% D/D 12.2% D/A 13.2%
A/H 4.5% A/D 6.0% A/A 20.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.0% under_7.5 30.0% over_8.5 58.0%
under_8.5 42.0% over_9.5 45.7% under_9.5 54.3%
over_10.5 34.2% under_10.5 65.8% over_11.5 24.3%
under_11.5 75.6% over_12.5 16.5% under_12.5 83.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.2% under_3.5 29.8% over_4.5 54.2%
under_4.5 45.8% over_5.5 38.8% under_5.5 61.2%
team_away
over_3.5 60.2% under_3.5 39.8% over_4.5 42.9%
under_4.5 57.1% over_5.5 28.2% under_5.5 71.8%
most
home 51.9% draw 11.0% away 37.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.5% away_+3.5 78.5% home_-1.5 40.7%
away_+1.5 59.3% home_-0.5 51.9% away_+0.5 48.1%
home_+0.5 62.9% away_-0.5 37.1% home_+1.5 72.9%
away_-1.5 27.1% home_+3.5 87.9% away_-3.5 12.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.6% under_22.5 38.4% over_24.5 48.9%
under_24.5 51.1% over_26.5 36.8% under_26.5 63.2%
over_28.5 26.1% under_28.5 73.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.1% under_10.5 31.9% over_12.5 50.8%
under_12.5 49.2% over_14.5 34.4% under_14.5 65.6%
team_away
over_10.5 58.2% under_10.5 41.8% over_12.5 40.0%
under_12.5 60.0% over_14.5 24.8% under_14.5 75.2%
most
home 54.4% draw 6.3% away 39.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 29.7% away_+4.5 70.3% home_-2.5 41.6%
away_+2.5 58.4% home_-0.5 54.4% away_+0.5 45.6%
home_+0.5 60.7% away_-0.5 39.3% home_+2.5 72.3%
away_-2.5 27.7% home_+4.5 81.9% away_-4.5 18.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.8% under_6.5 23.2% over_7.5 65.6%
under_7.5 34.4% over_8.5 53.4% under_8.5 46.6%
over_9.5 41.4% under_9.5 58.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.8% under_3.5 35.2% over_4.5 47.4%
under_4.5 52.6% over_5.5 31.9% under_5.5 68.1%
team_away
over_3.5 62.1% under_3.5 37.9% over_4.5 44.6%
under_4.5 55.5% over_5.5 29.2% under_5.5 70.8%
most
home 45.8% draw 12.4% away 41.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.4% away_+2.5 76.6% home_-0.5 45.8%
away_+0.5 54.2% home_+0.5 58.2% away_-0.5 41.8%
home_+2.5 79.6% away_-2.5 20.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.8% under_2.5 26.2% over_3.5 53.5%
under_3.5 46.5% over_4.5 34.0% under_4.5 66.0%
over_5.5 19.1% under_5.5 80.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.7% under_1.5 48.4% over_2.5 25.1%
under_2.5 74.9%
team_away
over_1.5 62.3% under_1.5 37.7% over_2.5 35.3%
under_2.5 64.7%
most
home 32.2% draw 20.8% away 47.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.0% away_+1.5 84.0% home_-0.5 32.2%
away_+0.5 67.8% home_+0.5 53.0% away_-0.5 47.0%
home_+1.5 72.7% away_-1.5 27.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 71.5% under_20.5 28.5% over_22.5 57.7%
under_22.5 42.3% over_24.5 43.3% under_24.5 56.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 72.3% under_9.5 27.7% over_11.5 52.4%
under_11.5 47.6% over_13.5 33.1% under_13.5 66.9%
team_away
over_9.5 70.9% under_9.5 29.1% over_11.5 50.6%
under_11.5 49.4% over_13.5 31.5% under_13.5 68.5%
most
home 47.6% draw 7.3% away 45.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.2% away_+3.5 72.8% home_-0.5 47.6%
away_+0.5 52.4% home_+2.5 68.7% away_-2.5 31.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 20.3% no 79.7%
home
yes 11.7% no 88.3%
away
yes 9.7% no 90.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Monaco predictions · Marseille predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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