League TwoOldham vs Chesterfield Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 74.0% for over 2.5 to 19.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.8%. Between the two sides, Chesterfield are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.8%, with a level count at 21.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.3% | 80.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
54.3%
27.4%
60.5%
33.4%
Card handicap
| Oldham line | Oldham | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.2% | 81.8% |
| -0.5 | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| +0.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| +1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 38.4% | 61.7% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Oldham cards per game11.6Oldham fouls per game1.8Chesterfield cards per game10.6Chesterfield fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Oldham vs Chesterfield. The model leans toward Chesterfield for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.8%Over 3.5 cards13.8%Any red card54.3%Oldham over 1.5 cards60.5%Chesterfield over 1.5 cards53.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Oldham over 1.5 cards sits at 54.3% and Chesterfield at 60.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.8% (Oldham 8.4%, Chesterfield 5.8%). This season Oldham have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Chesterfield 1.8.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Oldham vs Chesterfield?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 53.8% for Oldham vs Chesterfield.
Will there be a red card in Oldham vs Chesterfield?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Oldham vs Chesterfield?
The model rates Chesterfield to pick up more cards at 43.8%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.