Oldham vs Chesterfield prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

By /

Oldham vs Chesterfield: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

League Two
Oldham

WLWDL

Sat, 12 Sep 202615:00UK
Chesterfield

LWLDD

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Oldham or draw

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.002 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
OldhamWin probability
44.5%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals72.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.37
Oldham or draw72.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Over 8.5 corners58.9%Good chancePays @ 1.70

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Oldham: 44% is the model's line for this League Two meeting on 12 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 44%. • Totals sit close to the fence: 47% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Oldham, 1 draws and 0 for Chesterfield over 2 games, 2.5 goals on average. • The run in: Oldham arrive W3 D1 L2, Chesterfield W2 D2 L2. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.002 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals46.8%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners37.9%@ 2.64
Medium risk

Draw or Chesterfield55.5%@ 1.80
Under 2.5 goals53.2%@ 1.88
Both teams to score51.6%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.65
1-0 correct score10.7%@ 9.31
2-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.09

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Oldham

44.5%+0.2%

Draw

27.5%+0.1%

Chesterfield

28.0%-0.3%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.002 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.546.8%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.558.9%

Good chance

Over 9.548.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.537.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.8%

Low chance

Most cornersOldham54.1%Chesterfield35.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.556.5%

Good chance

Over 24.543.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.531.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.521.8%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Oldham14.3 taken10.8 faced
Chesterfield14.3 taken13.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.8%2.546.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.002 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

OldhamWLWDL
ChesterfieldLWLDD

Last 2 meetings: Oldham 1 · 1 draws · Chesterfield 0 · 2.5 goals/game.

2026-03-17Chesterfield 0-3 Oldham
2026-01-01Oldham 1-1 Chesterfield

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

OldhamChesterfield
League position#10 of 24#17 of 24
Record W-D-L2-1-21-2-2
Current streakL1D2
Points per game1.401.00
Record, home vs away2-0-01-0-1
Goals scored per game1.401.20
Goals conceded per game1.001.40
1st half goals per game0.600.60
2nd half goals per game0.800.60
Corners won per game6.23.6
Cards per game2.01.8
Fouls per game11.610.6
Red cards this season10
Shots per game15.415.0
Shots faced per game11.613.4
Shots on target per game4.65.0
Over 2.5 rate

40.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%60.0%

Clean sheets

40.0%20.0%

Rates this season:OldhamChesterfield

League averages this season: 2.67 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Oldham win2.102.25
Draw3.303.64
Chesterfield win3.203.57
Over 2.5 goals1.952.14
Under 2.5 goals1.851.88

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Oldham win2.24
Draw3.64
Chesterfield win3.57
Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.37
Over 2.5 goals2.14
Over 3.5 goals3.96
Oldham most2.24
Chesterfield most3.57

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.38
Over 8.5 corners1.64
Over 9.5 corners2.04
Over 10.5 corners2.66
Oldham most1.84
Chesterfield most2.85

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.35
Over 3.5 cards1.86
Over 4.5 cards2.91
Over 5.5 cards5.18
Oldham most2.84
Chesterfield most2.28

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.59
Over 7.5 SoT2.00
Over 8.5 SoT2.65
Over 9.5 SoT3.70
Oldham most1.77
Chesterfield most3.24

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.77
Over 24.5 shots2.29
Over 26.5 shots3.14
Over 28.5 shots4.58
Oldham most1.71
Chesterfield most2.84

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.46
Over 22.5 fouls1.87
Over 24.5 fouls2.61
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 56.5% Over 24.5 43.7% Over 26.5 31.8% Over 28.5 21.8%
Most: Oldham 58.5% Most: Chesterfield 35.2%
Oldham Over 13.2 41.5% Chesterfield Over 13.2 25.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 63.1% Over 7.5 50.1% Over 8.5 37.8% Over 9.5 27.0%
Most: Oldham 56.4% Most: Chesterfield 30.9%
Oldham Over 4.2 43.9% Chesterfield Over 4.2 26.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 74.0% Over 3.5 53.8% Over 4.5 34.3%
Most: Oldham 35.2% Most: Chesterfield 43.8%
Oldham Over 1.8 54.2% Chesterfield Over 1.8 60.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Oldham clean sheet 33.3%
Chesterfield clean sheet 23.5%
Oldham win to nil 24.8%
Chesterfield win to nil 15.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 44.6% draw 27.5% away 28.0%
double_chance
1X 72.0% 12 72.5% X2 55.5%
dnb
home 61.4% away 38.6%
btts
yes 51.6% no 48.4%
clean_sheet
home 33.4% away 23.5%
win_to_nil
home 24.9% away 15.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.5% home_by_2 13.6% home_by_3plus 8.5%
away_by_1 16.9% away_by_2 7.8% away_by_3plus 3.3%
correct_score
0-0 8.5% 0-1 8.0% 0-2 4.7%
0-3 1.7% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.7% 1-1 13.1% 1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.5% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.2% 2-1 9.0% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.0% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.5% under_0.5 8.5% over_1.5 72.8%
under_1.5 27.2% over_2.5 46.8% under_2.5 53.2%
over_3.5 25.2% under_3.5 74.8% over_4.5 11.5%
under_4.5 88.5% over_5.5 4.5% under_5.5 95.5%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 76.5% under_0.5 23.5% over_1.5 42.5%
under_1.5 57.5% over_2.5 17.8% under_2.5 82.2%
team_away
over_0.5 66.6% under_0.5 33.4% over_1.5 30.0%
under_1.5 70.0% over_2.5 9.9% under_2.5 90.1%
most
home 44.6% draw 27.5% away 28.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.5% away_+2.5 91.5% home_-1.5 22.1%
away_+1.5 78.0% home_-0.5 44.6% away_+0.5 55.5%
home_+0.5 72.0% away_-0.5 28.0% home_+1.5 88.9%
away_-1.5 11.1% home_+2.5 96.7% away_-2.5 3.3%
total_exact
exact_0 8.5% exact_1 18.7% exact_2 26.0%
exact_3 21.6% exact_4 13.7% exact_5 7.0%
exact_6 3.0% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.1% draw 42.0% away 23.8%
total
over_0.5 69.4% under_0.5 30.6% over_1.5 33.2%
under_1.5 66.8% over_2.5 11.7% under_2.5 88.3%
btts
yes 19.6% no 80.4%
total_exact
exact_0 30.6% exact_1 36.2% exact_2 21.5%
exact_3 8.5% exact_4plus 3.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.9% draw 39.7% away 24.4%
total
over_0.5 72.8% under_0.5 27.2% over_1.5 37.4%
under_1.5 62.6% over_2.5 14.4% under_2.5 85.7%
btts
yes 22.5% no 77.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.7% H/D 4.9% H/A 1.5%
D/H 15.1% D/D 16.7% D/A 10.3%
A/H 2.2% A/D 5.0% A/A 16.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.3% under_7.5 27.7% over_8.5 60.9%
under_8.5 39.1% over_9.5 48.9% under_9.5 51.1%
over_10.5 37.6% under_10.5 62.4% over_11.5 27.6%
under_11.5 72.4% over_12.5 19.3% under_12.5 80.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.0% under_3.5 27.0% over_4.5 57.8%
under_4.5 42.2% over_5.5 42.7% under_5.5 57.3%
team_away
over_3.5 60.4% under_3.5 39.6% over_4.5 43.3%
under_4.5 56.7% over_5.5 28.7% under_5.5 71.3%
most
home 54.2% draw 10.7% away 35.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.8% away_+3.5 76.2% home_-1.5 43.3%
away_+1.5 56.7% home_-0.5 54.2% away_+0.5 45.8%
home_+0.5 64.9% away_-0.5 35.1% home_+1.5 74.6%
away_-1.5 25.4% home_+3.5 88.7% away_-3.5 11.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 56.5% under_22.5 43.5% over_24.5 43.7%
under_24.5 56.3% over_26.5 31.8% under_26.5 68.2%
over_28.5 21.8% under_28.5 78.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 67.4% under_10.5 32.6% over_12.5 50.0%
under_12.5 50.1% over_14.5 33.6% under_14.5 66.4%
team_away
over_10.5 51.4% under_10.5 48.6% over_12.5 33.4%
under_12.5 66.6% over_14.5 19.4% under_14.5 80.6%
most
home 58.5% draw 6.3% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.9% away_+4.5 67.1% home_-2.5 45.4%
away_+2.5 54.6% home_-0.5 58.5% away_+0.5 41.5%
home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.2% home_+2.5 76.1%
away_-2.5 24.0% home_+4.5 85.0% away_-4.5 15.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 63.1% under_6.5 36.9% over_7.5 50.1%
under_7.5 49.9% over_8.5 37.8% under_8.5 62.2%
over_9.5 27.1% under_9.5 73.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.0% under_3.5 39.0% over_4.5 43.9%
under_4.5 56.1% over_5.5 29.2% under_5.5 70.9%
team_away
over_3.5 42.5% under_3.5 57.5% over_4.5 26.0%
under_4.5 74.0% over_5.5 14.4% under_5.5 85.6%
most
home 56.4% draw 12.7% away 30.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.9% away_+2.5 69.1% home_-0.5 56.4%
away_+0.5 43.6% home_+0.5 69.1% away_-0.5 30.9%
home_+2.5 87.8% away_-2.5 12.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 74.0% under_2.5 26.0% over_3.5 53.8%
under_3.5 46.2% over_4.5 34.3% under_4.5 65.7%
over_5.5 19.3% under_5.5 80.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.3% under_1.5 45.8% over_2.5 27.4%
under_2.5 72.6%
team_away
over_1.5 60.5% under_1.5 39.5% over_2.5 33.4%
under_2.5 66.6%
most
home 35.2% draw 21.0% away 43.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.2% away_+1.5 81.8% home_-0.5 35.2%
away_+0.5 64.8% home_+0.5 56.2% away_-0.5 43.8%
home_+1.5 75.2% away_-1.5 24.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 68.6% under_20.5 31.4% over_22.5 53.5%
under_22.5 46.5% over_24.5 38.4% under_24.5 61.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 71.2% under_9.5 28.8% over_11.5 49.8%
under_11.5 50.2% over_13.5 29.6% under_13.5 70.4%
team_away
over_9.5 69.2% under_9.5 30.9% over_11.5 47.3%
under_11.5 52.7% over_13.5 27.5% under_13.5 72.5%
most
home 47.8% draw 7.8% away 44.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.1% away_+3.5 73.9% home_-0.5 47.8%
away_+0.5 52.2% home_+2.5 70.2% away_-2.5 29.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.8% no 86.3%
home
yes 8.4% no 91.6%
away
yes 5.8% no 94.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Oldham predictions · Chesterfield predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

League TwoOldhamChesterfieldTrack record