Port Vale vs Exeter prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Port Vale vs Exeter: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

League Two
Port Vale

LDDLL

Sat, 12 Sep 202615:00UK
Exeter

LWLDD

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Port Vale or draw

60%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.25).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Port ValeWin probability
41.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Port Vale or draw69.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.44
Over 8.5 corners59.9%Good chancePays @ 1.67

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Port Vale: 41% is the model's line for this League Two meeting on 12 September 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Port Vale at 48%. Caution noted. Totals sit close to the fence: 45% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. Form guide over the last six: Port Vale W0 D2 L4, Exeter W1 D2 L3. Port Vale are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 4 wins for Port Vale, 1 draws and 0 for Exeter, averaging 1.6 goals a game. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.25)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.3%@ 2.21
Over 10.5 corners38.9%@ 2.57
Exeter win30.5%@ 3.28
Medium risk

Draw or Exeter58.6%@ 1.71
Under 2.5 goals54.7%@ 1.83
Both teams to score50.9%@ 1.96
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.47
1-0 correct score10.7%@ 9.39
0-0 correct score8.9%@ 11.19

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Port Vale

41.4%-6.6%

Draw

28.1%+1.3%

Exeter

30.5%+5.3%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.25)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.9%

Good chance

Over 9.549.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.7%

Low chance

Most cornersPort Vale54.4%Exeter34.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.557.3%

Good chance

Over 24.544.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.532.5%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.4%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Port Vale11.2 taken10.0 faced
Exeter12.3 taken11.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.7%2.545.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.7%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.25).

Form & head-to-head

Port ValeLDDLL
ExeterLWLDD

Last 5 meetings: Port Vale 4 · 1 draws · Exeter 0 · 1.6 goals/game.

2022-05-07Exeter 0-1 Port Vale
2022-03-22Port Vale 0-0 Exeter
2021-04-02Port Vale 1-0 Exeter
2020-09-19Exeter 0-2 Port Vale
2020-01-28Port Vale 3-1 Exeter

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Port ValeExeter
League position#24 of 24#16 of 24
Record W-D-L0-2-31-2-2
Current streakL2D2
Points per game0.401.00
Record, home vs away0-2-00-0-2
Goals scored per game0.400.80
Goals conceded per game1.400.80
1st half goals per game0.400.40
2nd half goals per game0.000.40
Corners won per game4.64.4
Cards per game1.81.6
Fouls per game15.012.0
Red cards this season00
Shots per game10.811.4
Shots faced per game10.612.8
Shots on target per game3.03.4
Over 2.5 rate

20.0%20.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%40.0%

Clean sheets

20.0%40.0%

Rates this season:Port ValeExeter

League averages this season: 2.67 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Port Vale win1.962.42
Draw3.403.56
Exeter win3.603.28
Over 2.5 goals2.032.21
Under 2.5 goals1.831.83

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Port Vale win2.42
Draw3.55
Exeter win3.28
Both teams to score1.96

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.40
Over 2.5 goals2.21
Over 3.5 goals4.17
Port Vale most2.42
Exeter most3.28

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.61
Over 9.5 corners2.00
Over 10.5 corners2.58
Port Vale most1.83
Exeter most2.87

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.42
Over 3.5 cards2.02
Over 4.5 cards3.30
Over 5.5 cards6.15
Port Vale most3.00
Exeter most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.56
Over 7.5 SoT1.95
Over 8.5 SoT2.57
Over 9.5 SoT3.56
Port Vale most1.80
Exeter most3.14

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.75
Over 24.5 shots2.25
Over 26.5 shots3.07
Over 28.5 shots4.46
Port Vale most1.72
Exeter most2.82

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.33
Over 22.5 fouls1.64
Over 24.5 fouls2.18
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 57.3% Over 24.5 44.4% Over 26.5 32.5% Over 28.5 22.4%
Most: Port Vale 58.3% Most: Exeter 35.5%
Port Vale Over 13.2 41.9% Exeter Over 13.2 26.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.2% Over 7.5 51.3% Over 8.5 38.9% Over 9.5 28.1%
Most: Port Vale 55.5% Most: Exeter 31.8%
Port Vale Over 4.2 44.1% Exeter Over 4.2 27.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.6% Over 3.5 49.5% Over 4.5 30.3%
Most: Port Vale 33.4% Most: Exeter 45.1%
Port Vale Over 1.8 50.0% Exeter Over 1.8 58.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Port Vale clean sheet 32.2%
Exeter clean sheet 25.7%
Port Vale win to nil 23.3%
Exeter win to nil 16.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.4% draw 28.1% away 30.5%
double_chance
1X 69.5% 12 71.9% X2 58.6%
dnb
home 57.6% away 42.4%
btts
yes 50.9% no 49.1%
clean_sheet
home 32.3% away 25.7%
win_to_nil
home 23.4% away 16.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.8% home_by_2 12.4% home_by_3plus 7.1%
away_by_1 18.0% away_by_2 8.6% away_by_3plus 3.9%
correct_score
0-0 8.9% 0-1 8.7% 0-2 5.3%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.7% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 7.2%
1-3 2.7% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.7% 2-1 8.7% 2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.5% 3-1 3.9% 3-2 2.2%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.3% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.1% under_0.5 8.9% over_1.5 71.7%
under_1.5 28.3% over_2.5 45.3% under_2.5 54.7%
over_3.5 24.0% under_3.5 76.0% over_4.5 10.7%
under_4.5 89.3% over_5.5 4.1% under_5.5 95.9%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 74.3% under_0.5 25.7% over_1.5 39.4%
under_1.5 60.6% over_2.5 15.7% under_2.5 84.3%
team_away
over_0.5 67.7% under_0.5 32.3% over_1.5 31.2%
under_1.5 68.8% over_2.5 10.6% under_2.5 89.4%
most
home 41.4% draw 28.1% away 30.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.1% away_+2.5 92.9% home_-1.5 19.6%
away_+1.5 80.4% home_-0.5 41.4% away_+0.5 58.6%
home_+0.5 69.5% away_-0.5 30.5% home_+1.5 87.6%
away_-1.5 12.4% home_+2.5 96.2% away_-2.5 3.9%
total_exact
exact_0 8.9% exact_1 19.4% exact_2 26.4%
exact_3 21.3% exact_4 13.3% exact_5 6.6%
exact_6 2.7% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.2% draw 51.6% away 18.2%
total
over_0.5 55.8% under_0.5 44.2% over_1.5 19.7%
under_1.5 80.3% over_2.5 5.0% under_2.5 95.0%
btts
yes 10.8% no 89.3%
total_exact
exact_0 44.2% exact_1 36.1% exact_2 14.7%
exact_3 4.0% exact_4plus 1.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 23.6% draw 44.6% away 31.8%
total
over_0.5 65.9% under_0.5 34.1% over_1.5 29.2%
under_1.5 70.8% over_2.5 9.5% under_2.5 90.5%
btts
yes 17.1% no 82.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.3% H/D 5.9% H/A 2.0%
D/H 12.2% D/D 23.0% D/A 16.4%
A/H 0.8% A/D 3.0% A/A 14.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.2% under_7.5 26.8% over_8.5 61.9%
under_8.5 38.1% over_9.5 50.1% under_9.5 49.9%
over_10.5 38.7% under_10.5 61.3% over_11.5 28.6%
under_11.5 71.4% over_12.5 20.2% under_12.5 79.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.7% under_3.5 26.3% over_4.5 58.7%
under_4.5 41.3% over_5.5 43.6% under_5.5 56.4%
team_away
over_3.5 60.9% under_3.5 39.1% over_4.5 43.9%
under_4.5 56.2% over_5.5 29.2% under_5.5 70.8%
most
home 54.6% draw 10.6% away 34.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.2% away_+3.5 75.8% home_-1.5 43.6%
away_+1.5 56.4% home_-0.5 54.6% away_+0.5 45.5%
home_+0.5 65.2% away_-0.5 34.8% home_+1.5 74.7%
away_-1.5 25.3% home_+3.5 88.7% away_-3.5 11.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 57.3% under_22.5 42.7% over_24.5 44.4%
under_24.5 55.6% over_26.5 32.5% under_26.5 67.5%
over_28.5 22.4% under_28.5 77.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 67.7% under_10.5 32.3% over_12.5 50.3%
under_12.5 49.7% over_14.5 34.0% under_14.5 66.0%
team_away
over_10.5 52.2% under_10.5 47.8% over_12.5 34.1%
under_12.5 65.9% over_14.5 20.0% under_14.5 80.1%
most
home 58.3% draw 6.3% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.8% away_+4.5 67.2% home_-2.5 45.3%
away_+2.5 54.8% home_-0.5 58.3% away_+0.5 41.8%
home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5% home_+2.5 75.8%
away_-2.5 24.2% home_+4.5 84.8% away_-4.5 15.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.2% under_6.5 35.8% over_7.5 51.3%
under_7.5 48.7% over_8.5 38.9% under_8.5 61.1%
over_9.5 28.1% under_9.5 71.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.2% under_3.5 38.9% over_4.5 44.1%
under_4.5 55.9% over_5.5 29.3% under_5.5 70.7%
team_away
over_3.5 44.1% under_3.5 55.9% over_4.5 27.4%
under_4.5 72.6% over_5.5 15.5% under_5.5 84.5%
most
home 55.5% draw 12.7% away 31.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.2% away_+2.5 69.8% home_-0.5 55.5%
away_+0.5 44.5% home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.8%
home_+2.5 87.2% away_-2.5 12.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.6% under_2.5 29.4% over_3.5 49.5%
under_3.5 50.5% over_4.5 30.3% under_4.5 69.7%
over_5.5 16.3% under_5.5 83.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 50.0% under_1.5 50.0% over_2.5 23.7%
under_2.5 76.3%
team_away
over_1.5 58.6% under_1.5 41.4% over_2.5 31.5%
under_2.5 68.5%
most
home 33.4% draw 21.6% away 45.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.5% away_+1.5 83.5% home_-0.5 33.4%
away_+0.5 66.6% home_+0.5 54.9% away_-0.5 45.1%
home_+1.5 74.8% away_-1.5 25.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 74.9% under_20.5 25.1% over_22.5 60.9%
under_22.5 39.1% over_24.5 45.9% under_24.5 54.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 72.2% under_9.5 27.8% over_11.5 51.0%
under_11.5 49.0% over_13.5 30.7% under_13.5 69.3%
team_away
over_9.5 76.7% under_9.5 23.3% over_11.5 56.8%
under_11.5 43.2% over_13.5 36.2% under_13.5 63.8%
most
home 42.1% draw 7.6% away 50.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.0% away_+3.5 78.0% home_-0.5 42.1%
away_+0.5 57.9% home_+2.5 64.6% away_-2.5 35.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 6.4% no 93.6%
home
yes 2.9% no 97.1%
away
yes 3.6% no 96.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Port Vale predictions · Exeter predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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