League TwoOldham vs Chesterfield Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 43.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 56.5% for over 22.5 to 21.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.7%. On the shot count, Oldham are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.5%, with a level count at 6.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 43.7% | 56.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 21.8% | 78.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
67.4%
50.0%
33.6%
51.4%
33.4%
19.4%
Shot handicap
| Oldham line | Oldham | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 32.9% | 67.1% |
| -2.5 | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| -0.5 | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| +0.5 | 64.8% | 35.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 27.1% | 73.0% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
15.4Oldham shots per game11.6Oldham shots faced per game15.0Chesterfield shots per game13.4Chesterfield shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Oldham.
In-depth analysis
43.7%Over 24.5 shots50.0%Oldham over 12.5 shots33.4%Chesterfield over 12.5 shots50.1%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Oldham over 12.5 shots sits at 50.0% and Chesterfield at 33.4%. This season Oldham have averaged 15.4 shots a game and Chesterfield 15.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Oldham vs Chesterfield?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 43.7% for Oldham vs Chesterfield.
Which team will have more shots in Oldham vs Chesterfield?
The model rates Oldham to take more shots at 58.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.