League TwoGrimsby vs Bristol Rvs Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 57.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.4% for over 2.5 to 21.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.0%. On the card count, Bristol Rvs are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 56.0%, with a level count at 19.2%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 37.5% | 62.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 21.8% | 78.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.4%
21.6%
69.6%
43.6%
Card handicap
| Grimsby line | Grimsby | Bristol Rvs |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11.5% | 88.6% |
| -0.5 | 24.9% | 75.1% |
| +0.5 | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| +1.5 | 64.4% | 35.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 40.0% | 60.0% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Grimsby cards per game13.0Grimsby fouls per game2.0Bristol Rvs cards per game11.6Bristol Rvs fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Grimsby vs Bristol Rvs. The model leans toward Bristol Rvs for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
57.0%Over 3.5 cards18.4%Any red card47.4%Grimsby over 1.5 cards69.6%Bristol Rvs over 1.5 cards55.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Grimsby over 1.5 cards sits at 47.4% and Bristol Rvs at 69.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.4% (Grimsby 3.4%, Bristol Rvs 15.6%). This season Grimsby have averaged 1.2 cards a game and Bristol Rvs 2.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Grimsby vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 57.0% for Grimsby vs Bristol Rvs.
Will there be a red card in Grimsby vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Grimsby vs Bristol Rvs?
The model rates Bristol Rvs to pick up more cards at 56.0%, with a level count at 19.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.