League TwoColchester vs Crewe Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.1% for over 2.5 to 18.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.7%. Head to head on cards, Crewe are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.1%, with a level count at 20.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.2% | 66.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.4% | 81.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
50.9%
24.4%
61.9%
34.9%
Card handicap
| Colchester line | Colchester | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.8% | 84.2% |
| -0.5 | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| +0.5 | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| +1.5 | 72.7% | 27.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 77.9% | 22.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 49.9% | 50.1% |
This season (2026/27)
0.8Colchester cards per game10.0Colchester fouls per game1.8Crewe cards per game13.8Crewe fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Colchester vs Crewe. The model leans toward Crewe for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.7%Over 3.5 cards14.1%Any red card50.9%Colchester over 1.5 cards61.9%Crewe over 1.5 cards64.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Colchester over 1.5 cards sits at 50.9% and Crewe at 61.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.1% (Colchester 3.7%, Crewe 10.9%). This season Colchester have averaged 0.8 cards a game and Crewe 1.8.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Colchester vs Crewe?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.7% for Colchester vs Crewe.
Will there be a red card in Colchester vs Crewe?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Colchester vs Crewe?
The model rates Crewe to pick up more cards at 47.1%, with a level count at 20.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More League Two, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.