Premier League
Manchester United vs 
Manchester City Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.0% for over 22.5 to 33.7% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.4%. Head to head on shots, Manchester United are the model’s pick to have more shots at 57.4%, with a level count at 5.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 33.7% | 66.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.5%
57.5%
42.4%
59.5%
42.9%
28.4%
Shot handicap
| Manchester United line | Manchester United | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| -2.5 | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| -0.5 | 57.4% | 42.7% |
| +0.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 44.7% | 55.3% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
8.0 / 14.7
8.3 / 7.3
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Manchester United.
In-depth analysis
55.8%Over 24.5 shots57.5%Manchester United over 12.5 shots42.9%Manchester City over 12.5 shots67.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Manchester United over 12.5 shots sits at 57.5% and Manchester City at 42.9%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 55.8% for Manchester United vs Manchester City.
Which team will have more shots in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
The model rates Manchester United to take more shots at 57.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.