Premier League
Nottingham Forest vs 
Coventry Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 49.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.0% for over 7.5 to 21.1% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Between the two sides, Nottingham Forest are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.5%, with a level count at 10.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 62.9% | 37.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 21.1% | 78.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.2%
57.5%
42.9%
62.2%
45.9%
31.5%
Corner handicap
| Nottingham Forest line | Nottingham Forest | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| -0.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| +0.5 | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| +1.5 | 71.9% | 28.1% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Nottingham Forest.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Nottingham Forest over 4.5 corners sits at 57.5% and Coventry at 45.9%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Nottingham Forest vs Coventry?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.2% for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry.
Which team will win the corner count in Nottingham Forest vs Coventry?
The model rates Nottingham Forest to win the corner count at 52.5%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,756 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.