Bournemouth vs Liverpool prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Bournemouth vs Liverpool: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Premier League
Bournemouth

DLDDD

Sun, 20 Sep 202614:00UK22°C · Cloudy
Liverpool

DDDWD

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Bournemouth or draw

61%

Both teams to score

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BournemouthWin probability
39.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals80.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
Bournemouth or draw63.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.57
Both teams to score61.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Bournemouth at 39% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 20 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 58% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. • Team news worth noting: Bournemouth have Dennis ruled out, Milosavljević ruled out, J.Araujo ruled out, Adli ruled out. • David Brooks drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: Bournemouth W0 D5 L1, Liverpool W1 D4 L1. The recent series reads 1 wins for Bournemouth, 0 draws and 4 for Liverpool over 5 games, 4.0 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.1%@ 2.43
Liverpool win36.3%@ 2.75
Over 11.5 corners32.3%@ 3.10
Medium risk

Draw or Liverpool60.9%@ 1.64
Over 8.5 corners60.9%@ 1.64
Over 2.5 goals58.1%@ 1.72
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.57
2-1 correct score8.5%@ 11.72
1-2 correct score8.3%@ 12.11

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Bournemouth

39.1%

Draw

24.6%

Liverpool

36.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.580.9%

High probability

Over 2.558.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes61.2%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.9%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.8%

Good chance

Over 10.541.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersBournemouth48.9%Liverpool40.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.553.7%

Good chance

Over 26.542.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.531.8%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Bournemouth14.3 taken11.8 faced
Liverpool17.3 taken12.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Bournemouth (4 games)

7.0 / 7.8

Liverpool (4 games)

6.5 / 9.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.580.9%2.558.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.9%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

BournemouthDLDDD
LiverpoolDDDWD

Last 5 meetings: Bournemouth 1 · 0 draws · Liverpool 4 · 4.0 goals/game.

2026-01-24Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool
2025-08-15Liverpool 4-2 Bournemouth
2025-02-01Bournemouth 0-2 Liverpool
2024-09-21Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth
2024-01-21Bournemouth 0-4 Liverpool

Referee history

Bournemouth
J Gillett2 matches · team cards 3.5/g · match 4.5/g

Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BournemouthLiverpool
League position#15 of 20#8 of 20
Record W-D-L0-3-11-3-0
Current streakD3D1
Record, home vs away0-2-01-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.85 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

David BrooksBournemouth · key player
To score4.8%

@ 20.83

1+ on target32.8%

@ 3.05

2+ shots32.2%

@ 3.11

Shots/90 3.06SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.13
Bradley BarcolaLiverpool · key player
To score29.2%

@ 3.42

1+ on target63.3%

@ 1.58

2+ shots63.2%

@ 1.58

Shots/90 3.04SoT/90 1.42Goals/90 0.49
Alvaro RodríguezBournemouth · in form
To score14.5%

@ 6.90

1+ on target44.4%

@ 2.25

2+ shots50.8%

@ 1.97

Shots/90 2.93SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.27
Alexander IsakLiverpool · in form
To score43.6%

@ 2.29

1+ on target67.4%

@ 1.48

2+ shots70.3%

@ 1.42

Shots/90 3SoT/90 1.37Goals/90 0.7
Justin KluivertBournemouth · in form
To score24.3%

@ 4.12

1+ on target48.7%

@ 2.05

2+ shots47.3%

@ 2.11

Shots/90 2.29SoT/90 0.96Goals/90 0.4
Víctor MuñozLiverpool · in form
To score15.9%

@ 6.29

1+ on target56.2%

@ 1.78

2+ shots65.1%

@ 1.54

Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.21

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Bournemouth win2.60
Draw3.95
Liverpool win2.76
Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.72
Over 3.5 goals2.80
Bournemouth most2.60
Liverpool most2.76

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.90
Over 10.5 corners2.42
Bournemouth most2.04
Liverpool most2.45

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.33
Over 3.5 cards1.81
Over 4.5 cards2.80
Over 5.5 cards4.90
Bournemouth most2.41
Liverpool most2.66

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.33
Over 7.5 SoT1.56
Over 8.5 SoT1.91
Over 9.5 SoT2.45
Bournemouth most1.97
Liverpool most2.67

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.54
Over 24.5 shots1.86
Over 26.5 shots2.36
Over 28.5 shots3.15
Bournemouth most1.75
Liverpool most2.69

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.59
Over 22.5 fouls2.14
Over 24.5 fouls3.17

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • DennisBournemouthOut0% to play
  • MilosavljevićBournemouthOut0% to play
  • J.AraujoBournemouthOut0% to play
  • AdliBournemouthOut0% to play
  • Kroupi.JrBournemouthOut0% to play
  • Enes ÜnalBournemouthOut0% to play
  • PecsiLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • JarosLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • GomezLiverpoolDoubtful75% to play
  • BradleyLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • LeoniLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • RamsayLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • ChiesaLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • C.JonesLiverpoolOut0% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 65.1% Over 24.5 53.7% Over 26.5 42.3% Over 28.5 31.8%
Most: Bournemouth 57.2% Most: Liverpool 37.1%
Bournemouth Over 13.2 48.3% Liverpool Over 13.2 33.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.1% Over 7.5 64.0% Over 8.5 52.3% Over 9.5 40.9%
Most: Bournemouth 50.7% Most: Liverpool 37.5%
Bournemouth Over 4.2 49.9% Liverpool Over 4.2 40.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.2% Over 3.5 55.3% Over 4.5 35.8%
Most: Bournemouth 41.5% Most: Liverpool 37.7%
Bournemouth Over 1.8 59.8% Liverpool Over 1.8 57.1%

Bournemouth: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
David Brooks 3.06 1.05 0.13 32.8% 32.2% 4.8%
Alvaro Rodríguez 2.93 1.01 0.27 44.4% 50.8% 14.5%
Justin Kluivert 2.29 0.96 0.4 48.7% 47.3% 24.3%
Evanilson 2.44 0.86 0.27 52.6% 62.5% 20.9%
Marcus Tavernier 2.4 0.82 0.23 49.4% 59.3% 17.4%

Liverpool: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Bradley Barcola 3.04 1.42 0.49 63.3% 63.2% 29.2%
Alexander Isak 3 1.37 0.7 67.4% 70.3% 43.6%
Víctor Muñoz 2.69 1 0.21 56.2% 65.1% 15.9%
Florian Wirtz 2.34 0.96 0.22 54.9% 57.8% 16.7%
Rio Ngumoha 2.65 0.88 0.29 23.8% 19.8% 8.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Bournemouth clean sheet 22.6%
Liverpool clean sheet 21.5%
Bournemouth win to nil 17.1%
Liverpool win to nil 16.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 38.5% draw 25.3% away 36.3%
double_chance
1X 63.7% 12 74.7% X2 61.6%
dnb
home 51.5% away 48.5%
btts
yes 61.2% no 38.8%
clean_sheet
home 22.7% away 21.6%
win_to_nil
home 17.2% away 16.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.4% home_by_2 11.6% home_by_3plus 7.5%
away_by_1 18.8% away_by_2 10.8% away_by_3plus 6.7%
correct_score
0-0 5.4% 0-1 6.7% 0-2 5.4%
0-3 2.7% 0-4 1.0% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 6.9% 1-1 11.7% 1-2 8.3%
1-3 4.1% 1-4 1.5% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.8% 2-1 8.5% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 3.1% 2-4 1.2% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 2.9% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.7% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.6% under_0.5 5.4% over_1.5 80.9%
under_1.5 19.1% over_2.5 58.1% under_2.5 41.9%
over_3.5 35.7% under_3.5 64.3% over_4.5 18.8%
under_4.5 81.2% over_5.5 8.6% under_5.5 91.4%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 78.5% under_0.5 21.6% over_1.5 45.4%
under_1.5 54.6% over_2.5 20.0% under_2.5 80.0%
team_away
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.7%
under_1.5 56.3% over_2.5 18.8% under_2.5 81.3%
most
home 38.5% draw 25.3% away 36.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.5% away_+2.5 92.5% home_-1.5 19.0%
away_+1.5 81.0% home_-0.5 38.5% away_+0.5 61.6%
home_+0.5 63.7% away_-0.5 36.3% home_+1.5 82.5%
away_-1.5 17.5% home_+2.5 93.3% away_-2.5 6.7%
total_exact
exact_0 5.4% exact_1 13.6% exact_2 22.8%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.9% exact_5 10.2%
exact_6 5.1% exact_7plus 3.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.8% draw 41.6% away 25.6%
total
over_0.5 70.3% under_0.5 29.7% over_1.5 34.3%
under_1.5 65.7% over_2.5 12.4% under_2.5 87.6%
btts
yes 20.6% no 79.4%
total_exact
exact_0 29.7% exact_1 36.1% exact_2 21.9%
exact_3 8.9% exact_4plus 3.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.2% draw 32.6% away 38.2%
total
over_0.5 83.7% under_0.5 16.3% over_1.5 54.2%
under_1.5 45.8% over_2.5 27.3% under_2.5 72.7%
btts
yes 35.3% no 64.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.7% H/D 6.4% H/A 3.8%
D/H 12.2% D/D 13.5% D/A 15.9%
A/H 2.0% A/D 4.2% A/A 19.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.2% under_7.5 24.8% over_8.5 64.3%
under_8.5 35.7% over_9.5 52.7% under_9.5 47.3%
over_10.5 41.3% under_10.5 58.7% over_11.5 31.0%
under_11.5 69.0% over_12.5 22.2% under_12.5 77.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.0% under_3.5 29.0% over_4.5 56.0%
under_4.5 44.0% over_5.5 41.3% under_5.5 58.7%
team_away
over_3.5 65.5% under_3.5 34.5% over_4.5 49.6%
under_4.5 50.4% over_5.5 35.1% under_5.5 64.9%
most
home 49.1% draw 10.1% away 40.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.7% away_+3.5 78.3% home_-1.5 39.1%
away_+1.5 60.9% home_-0.5 49.1% away_+0.5 50.9%
home_+0.5 59.2% away_-0.5 40.8% home_+1.5 68.7%
away_-1.5 31.3% home_+3.5 84.0% away_-3.5 16.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.1% under_22.5 34.9% over_24.5 53.7%
under_24.5 46.3% over_26.5 42.3% under_26.5 57.7%
over_28.5 31.8% under_28.5 68.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.2% under_10.5 28.8% over_12.5 56.0%
under_12.5 44.0% over_14.5 40.8% under_14.5 59.2%
team_away
over_10.5 58.1% under_10.5 41.9% over_12.5 41.5%
under_12.5 58.5% over_14.5 27.2% under_14.5 72.8%
most
home 57.2% draw 5.7% away 37.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.3% away_+4.5 65.7% home_-2.5 45.6%
away_+2.5 54.4% home_-0.5 57.2% away_+0.5 42.8%
home_+0.5 62.9% away_-0.5 37.1% home_+2.5 73.3%
away_-2.5 26.7% home_+4.5 81.9% away_-4.5 18.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.1% under_6.5 24.9% over_7.5 64.0%
under_7.5 36.0% over_8.5 52.3% under_8.5 47.7%
over_9.5 40.9% under_9.5 59.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.1% under_3.5 33.9% over_4.5 49.9%
under_4.5 50.1% over_5.5 35.0% under_5.5 65.0%
team_away
over_3.5 57.4% under_3.5 42.7% over_4.5 40.3%
under_4.5 59.7% over_5.5 26.1% under_5.5 73.9%
most
home 50.7% draw 11.9% away 37.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.1% away_+2.5 71.9% home_-0.5 50.7%
away_+0.5 49.3% home_+0.5 62.5% away_-0.5 37.5%
home_+2.5 82.1% away_-2.5 17.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.2% under_2.5 24.8% over_3.5 55.3%
under_3.5 44.7% over_4.5 35.8% under_4.5 64.2%
over_5.5 20.4% under_5.5 79.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 59.8% under_1.5 40.2% over_2.5 32.7%
under_2.5 67.3%
team_away
over_1.5 57.1% under_1.5 42.9% over_2.5 30.1%
under_2.5 69.9%
most
home 41.5% draw 20.9% away 37.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 23.0% away_+1.5 77.0% home_-0.5 41.5%
away_+0.5 58.5% home_+0.5 62.3% away_-0.5 37.7%
home_+1.5 79.9% away_-1.5 20.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 62.8% under_20.5 37.2% over_22.5 46.6%
under_22.5 53.4% over_24.5 31.5% under_24.5 68.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 65.9% under_9.5 34.1% over_11.5 43.1%
under_11.5 56.9% over_13.5 23.5% under_13.5 76.5%
team_away
over_9.5 67.0% under_9.5 33.0% over_11.5 44.3%
under_11.5 55.7% over_13.5 24.4% under_13.5 75.6%
most
home 45.1% draw 8.2% away 46.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.1% away_+3.5 76.9% home_-0.5 45.1%
away_+0.5 54.9% home_+2.5 68.8% away_-2.5 31.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.3% no 87.7%
home
yes 6.4% no 93.6%
away
yes 6.3% no 93.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Bournemouth predictions · Liverpool predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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