Championship
MillwallMillwallWLDDW
Full time0-1Tue, 13 Oct 202613/1019:45UK
SwanseaSwanseaDLWWW

Millwall 0-1 Swansea correct score: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

1-1 correct score13.2%
1-0 correct score10.4%
2-1 correct score8.9%

Result

Millwall0-1Swansea

Final score 0-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 8.2%.

Model read

No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.

Conviction: Open

Most likely · 13.2%1-1

Correct score

Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.

Rows = Millwall goals, columns = Swansea goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%.

The grid is the model's full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.

Most likely scorelines

  1. 1-113.2%
  2. 1-010.4%
  3. 2-18.9%
  4. 0-08.4%
  5. 0-18.2%
  6. 2-07.8%
  7. 1-27.1%
  8. 2-25.1%

Score probability grid

H / A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.4% 8.2% 5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
1 10.4% 13.2% 7.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
2 7.8% 8.9% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 3.7% 4.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Millwall · Columns: Swansea

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

8.4%

0

18.6%

1

26.0%

2

21.6%

3

13.8%

4

11.2%

5+

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

MillwallMillwallLast 5
W
Win · 4-0
L
Loss · 1-3
D
Draw · 2-2
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 1-0

2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss

SwanseaSwanseaLast 5
D
Draw · 0-0
L
Loss · 1-3
W
Win · 3-1
W
Win · 2-1
W
Win · 2-1

3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

4MillwallMillwall wins
1Draws
0SwanseaSwansea wins
1.6Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
MillwallMillwall
2 – 1
SwanseaSwansea
SwanseaSwansea
1 – 1
MillwallMillwall
MillwallMillwall
1 – 0
SwanseaSwansea
SwanseaSwansea
0 – 1
MillwallMillwall
SwanseaSwansea
0 – 1
MillwallMillwall

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Most likely · 13.2% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Millwall have averaged 2.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, Swansea 1.6 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.1% for over 2.5 and 73.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the goal environment, the model sees 47.1% for three or more goals and 73.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Millwall favoured at 42.8%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

42.8%Favoured: Millwall
52.1%Both Teams to Score
47.1%Over 2.5 goals

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 1-1 on Correct Score. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The TacticianProjects a balanced game from the 47.1% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutMillwall are the model’s pick on the result at 42.8%, context for how the goals may flow.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

What was the score in Millwall vs Swansea?
Millwall vs Swansea finished 0-1. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 13.2%; it gave the actual 0-1 a 8.2% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Championship, Correct Score

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Related

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.