ChampionshipMiddlesbrough vs Millwall Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 57.4% and it landed (33 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 54.2% and it landed (11 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 57.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 69.4% for over 22.5 to 33.5% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.1%. Between the two sides, Middlesbrough are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.2%, with a level count at 5.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| 24.5 shots | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 33.5% | 66.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
79.3%
64.6%
48.6%
55.3%
37.1%
22.4%
Shot handicap
| Middlesbrough line | Middlesbrough | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| -2.5 | 54.2% | 45.9% |
| -0.5 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| +0.5 | 71.7% | 28.3% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.1% | 69.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
17.2Middlesbrough shots per game11.3Middlesbrough shots faced per game15.0Millwall shots per game12.8Millwall shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Middlesbrough.
In-depth analysis
57.4%Over 24.5 shots64.6%Middlesbrough over 12.5 shots37.1%Millwall over 12.5 shots54.2%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Middlesbrough over 12.5 shots sits at 64.6% and Millwall at 37.1%. This season Middlesbrough have averaged 17.2 shots a game and Millwall 15.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 57.4% for Middlesbrough vs Millwall.
Which team will have more shots in Middlesbrough vs Millwall?
Before kickoff, the model rated Middlesbrough to take more shots at 66.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
