AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

2. Bundesliga
MagdeburgMagdeburgDWLWD
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1112:30UK
St PauliSt PauliDWDDL

Magdeburg vs St Pauli cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined63.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined36.5%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards63.5%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Magdeburg vs St Pauli. The model leans toward St Pauli for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 81.1% 18.9%
3.5 cards 63.5% 36.5%
4.5 cards 44.3% 55.7%
5.5 cards 27.5% 72.5%

Who picks up more cards

Magdeburg
35.9%
Level
19.6%
St Pauli
44.5%

Team cards lines

Magdeburg

Over 1.5
61.2%
Over 2.5
34.2%

St Pauli

Over 1.5
67.0%
Over 2.5
40.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Magdeburg's; St Pauli gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Magdeburg line Magdeburg St Pauli
-1.5 19.6% 80.4%
-0.5 35.9% 64.1%
+0.5 55.5% 44.5%
+1.5 73.6% 26.4%

Red card

Any red card12.9%
Magdeburg red card4.1%
St Pauli red card9.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 65.7% 34.3%
22.5 fouls 51.2% 48.8%
24.5 fouls 37.0% 63.0%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
St Pauli F. Prigan 2 4.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

MagdeburgMagdeburg

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Magdeburg at home and St Pauli away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

St PauliSt Pauli
Statistic
Magdeburg
St Pauli
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.8

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.3

Yellow cards per game
2.0
2.2

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.6

Matches with more cards than the opponent
·
50.0%

Matches with card data
3
6
Red cards this season
·
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 10,240 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 63.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 81.1% for over 2.5 to 27.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.3%. Between the two sides, St Pauli are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.5%, with a level count at 19.6%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Magdeburg over 1.5 cards sits at 61.2% and St Pauli at 67.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.9% (Magdeburg 4.1%, St Pauli 9.2%). St Pauli’s most frequent referee this season, F. Prigan, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

63.5%Over 3.5 cards
12.9%Any red card
44.5%Most cards: St Pauli
61.2%Magdeburg over 1.5 cards
67.0%St Pauli over 1.5 cards
51.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 63.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherF. Prigan, St Pauli’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.9%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianSt Pauli are the pick to collect more cards at 44.5%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
MagdeburgMagdeburg

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

St PauliSt Pauli
Statistic
Magdeburg
St Pauli
cards per game
·
2.3

fouls per game
10.4
11.2

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5 · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Magdeburg vs St Pauli?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.5% for Magdeburg vs St Pauli.
Will there be a red card in Magdeburg vs St Pauli?
The model rates a red card for either side at 12.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Magdeburg vs St Pauli?
The model rates St Pauli to pick up more cards at 44.5%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaMagdeburg fixtures and statsSt Pauli fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.