AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

2. Bundesliga
MagdeburgMagdeburgLWDWL
Full time6-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:00UK
KarlsruheKarlsruheDLLLW

Magdeburg 6-1 Karlsruhe cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined62.5%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined37.5%

Result

Magdeburg6-1Karlsruhe
3 yellow cardsMagdeburg 2, Karlsruhe 1
0 red cardsMagdeburg 0, Karlsruhe 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 62.5% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 91.1% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards62.5%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Felix Wagner

Recorded match referee.

Felix Wagner in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 12 3
Goals 2.58 Not available
Yellow cards 5.25 Not available
Red cards 0.17 Not available
Corners 10.0 Not available
Fouls 24.1 Not available
Both teams scored 42% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 33% Not available
Home wins 58% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Magdeburg vs Karlsruhe 6-1 7 Yes 3 0 8 19
20 Sep 2026 Bielefeld vs Heidenheim 2-2 4 Yes 7 0 11 22
28 Aug 2026 Bochum vs Osnabruck 0-1 1 No 7 0 7 27
18 Apr 2026 Magdeburg vs Fortuna Dusseldorf 2-0 2 No 4 0 13 19
21 Mar 2026 Nurnberg vs Kaiserslautern 3-0 3 No 4 0 12 24
21 Feb 2026 Elversberg vs Braunschweig 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 4 19
1 Feb 2026 Dresden vs Bielefeld 1-1 2 Yes 5 1 8 25
21 Dec 2025 Preußen Münster vs Elversberg 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 11 30
29 Nov 2025 Holstein Kiel vs Hertha 0-1 1 No 8 0 11 27
2 Nov 2025 Bochum vs Magdeburg 2-0 2 No 6 0 15 15

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Magdeburg vs Karlsruhe. Slightly more cards are projected for Karlsruhe for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 80.4% 19.6%
3.5 cards 62.5% 37.5%
4.5 cards 43.2% 56.8%
5.5 cards 26.5% 73.5%

Who picks up more cards

Magdeburg
32.5%
Level
19.5%
Karlsruhe
48.0%

Team cards lines

Magdeburg

Over 1.5
57.9%
Over 2.5
30.9%

Karlsruhe

Over 1.5
68.4%
Over 2.5
42.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Magdeburg's; Karlsruhe gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Magdeburg line Magdeburg Karlsruhe
-1.5 17.0% 83.0%
-0.5 32.5% 67.5%
+0.5 52.0% 48.0%
+1.5 70.8% 29.2%

Red card

Any red card8.9%
Magdeburg red card5.2%
Karlsruhe red card3.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 67.5% 32.5%
22.5 fouls 53.1% 46.9%
24.5 fouls 38.8% 61.2%
MagdeburgMagdeburg

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Magdeburg at home and Karlsruhe away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

KarlsruheKarlsruhe
Statistic
Magdeburg
Karlsruhe
Yellow cards per game
2.5
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.7
0.6

Matches with card data
2
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 62.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 80.4% for over 2.5 to 26.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.2%. Head to head on cards, Karlsruhe are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.0%, with a level count at 19.5%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Magdeburg over 1.5 cards sits at 57.9% and Karlsruhe at 68.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.9% (Magdeburg 5.2%, Karlsruhe 3.9%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

62.5%Over 3.5 cards
8.9%Any red card
48.0%Most cards: Karlsruhe
57.9%Magdeburg over 1.5 cards
68.4%Karlsruhe over 1.5 cards
53.1%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 62.5% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.9%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianKarlsruhe are the pick to collect more cards at 48.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 43.2%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
MagdeburgMagdeburg

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

KarlsruheKarlsruhe
Statistic
Magdeburg
Karlsruhe
fouls per game
11.0
14.4

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Magdeburg vs Karlsruhe?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 62.5% for Magdeburg vs Karlsruhe.
Will there be a red card in Magdeburg vs Karlsruhe?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Magdeburg vs Karlsruhe?
Before kickoff, the model rated Karlsruhe to pick up more cards at 48.0%, with a level count at 19.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

2. BundesligaMagdeburg fixtures and statsKarlsruhe fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.