Bundesliga
M'gladbach vs 
Elversberg Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 52.9% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 87.3% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 52.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.3% for over 2.5 to 18.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.9%. Between the two sides, Elversberg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.2%, with a level count at 21.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.5% | 66.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.6% | 81.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
52.5%
25.9%
60.8%
33.8%
Card handicap
| M'gladbach line | M'gladbach | Elversberg |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.1% | 82.9% |
| -0.5 | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| +0.5 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| +1.5 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.8% | 70.2% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for M'gladbach vs Elversberg. The model leans toward Elversberg for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
52.9%Over 3.5 cards12.7%Any red card52.5%M'gladbach over 1.5 cards60.8%Elversberg over 1.5 cards40.7%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, M'gladbach over 1.5 cards sits at 52.5% and Elversberg at 60.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.7% (M'gladbach 7.1%, Elversberg 6.0%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in M'gladbach vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.9% for M'gladbach vs Elversberg.
Will there be a red card in M'gladbach vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in M'gladbach vs Elversberg?
Before kickoff, the model rated Elversberg to pick up more cards at 45.2%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.