Leverkusen vs Union Berlin prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Leverkusen vs Union Berlin: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Bundesliga
Leverkusen

WWLDL

Full time4-0Sat, 5 Sep 202614:30UK21°C · Clear
Union Berlin

LDWWD

Model’s top convictions

85%

Over 1.5 goals

83%

Leverkusen or draw

64%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Leverkusen at 64.9%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 64.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 84.6% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 58.0% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 60.9% and it missed. We called Yes at 83.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 80.2% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 52.2% and it landed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 57.6% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 60.4% and it landed (26 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 71.8% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 87.1% and it landed.

Match data Leverkusen Union Berlin
Goals, 1st half 2 0
Goals, 2nd half 2 0
Shots 21 5
Shots, 1st half 12 1
Shots, 2nd half 9 4
Shots on target 10 0
Corners 11 1
Yellow cards 2 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 12
Expected goals (xG) 3.39 0.25

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LeverkusenWin probability
64.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals84.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.18
Leverkusen or draw83.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.20
Over 2.5 goals64.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.56

Model read

▾

Few Bundesliga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Leverkusen carry a 65% win probability against Union Berlin on 5 September 2026. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 64% with both teams to score at 61%. Form guide over the last six: Leverkusen W2 D1 L3, Union Berlin W2 D2 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Leverkusen, 1 draws and 1 for Union Berlin, averaging 1.4 goals a game. For shots markets, Victor Boniface is the obvious watch at 1.9 on target per 90 in recent data. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners40.5%@ 2.47
Draw or Union Berlin35.1%@ 2.85
Over 11.5 corners31.3%@ 3.19
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners61.3%@ 1.63
Both teams to score60.9%@ 1.64
Over 9.5 corners50.7%@ 1.97
Random finds

2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.24
1-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.45
2-0 correct score8.5%@ 11.78

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Leverkusen

64.9%

Draw

18.4%

Union Berlin

16.7%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.584.6%

High probability

Over 2.564.1%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes60.9%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.3%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.7%

Good chance

Over 10.540.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersLeverkusen62.0%Union Berlin28.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.571.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.560.4%

Strong chance

Over 26.548.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.536.6%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.584.6%2.564.1%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.564.1%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LeverkusenWWLDL
Union BerlinLDWWD

Last 5 meetings: Leverkusen 3 · 1 draws · Union Berlin 1 · 1.4 goals/game.

2026-02-21Union Berlin 1-0 Leverkusen
2025-10-04Leverkusen 2-0 Union Berlin
2025-04-12Leverkusen 0-0 Union Berlin
2024-11-30Union Berlin 1-2 Leverkusen
2024-04-06Union Berlin 0-1 Leverkusen

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LeverkusenUnion Berlin
League position#13 of 18#9 of 18
Record W-D-L0-0-10-1-0
Current streakL1D1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Victor BonifaceLeverkusen · key player
To score24.0%

@ 4.17

1+ on target57.8%

@ 1.73

2+ shots61.2%

@ 1.63

Shots/90 4.6SoT/90 1.92Goals/90 0.61
Tim SkarkeUnion Berlin · key player
To score3.7%

@ 27.03

1+ on target25.3%

@ 3.95

2+ shots14.0%

@ 7.14

Shots/90 1.9SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.11
Patrik SchickLeverkusen · in form
To score47.9%

@ 2.09

1+ on target67.2%

@ 1.49

2+ shots70.9%

@ 1.41

Shots/90 3.5SoT/90 1.57Goals/90 0.92
Woo-Yeong JeongUnion Berlin · in form
To score12.7%

@ 7.87

1+ on target25.0%

@ 4.00

2+ shots23.5%

@ 4.26

Shots/90 1.7SoT/90 0.53Goals/90 0.25
Christian KofaneLeverkusen · in form
To score17.6%

@ 5.68

1+ on target47.5%

@ 2.11

2+ shots47.9%

@ 2.09

Shots/90 3.5SoT/90 1.4Goals/90 0.42
Tom RotheUnion Berlin · in form
To score9.8%

@ 10.20

1+ on target26.6%

@ 3.76

2+ shots22.6%

@ 4.42

Shots/90 1.39SoT/90 0.48Goals/90 0.16

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Leverkusen win1.68
Draw4.72
Union Berlin win5.19
Both teams to score1.64

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.18
Over 2.5 goals1.56
Over 3.5 goals2.38
Over 4.5 goals4.20
Leverkusen most1.68
Union Berlin most5.19

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.91
Over 10.5 corners2.47
Leverkusen most1.61
Union Berlin most3.57

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.30
Over 3.5 cards1.74
Over 4.5 cards2.63
Over 5.5 cards4.50
Leverkusen most3.06
Union Berlin most2.13

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.39
Over 8.5 SoT1.65
Over 9.5 SoT2.03
Leverkusen most1.57
Union Berlin most3.89

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.39
Over 24.5 shots1.66
Over 26.5 shots2.07
Over 28.5 shots2.73
Leverkusen most1.47
Union Berlin most3.75

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.02
Over 22.5 fouls2.67
Over 24.5 fouls3.72
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.6% Over 7.5 71.8% Over 8.5 60.7% Over 9.5 49.2%
Most: Leverkusen 63.8% Most: Union Berlin 25.7%
Leverkusen Over 4.2 64.2% Union Berlin Over 4.2 36.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.9% Over 3.5 57.5% Over 4.5 38.0%
Most: Leverkusen 32.7% Most: Union Berlin 47.0%
Leverkusen Over 1.8 54.8% Union Berlin Over 1.8 64.8%

Leverkusen: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Victor Boniface 4.6 1.92 0.61 57.8% 61.2% 24.0%
Patrik Schick 3.5 1.57 0.92 67.2% 70.9% 47.9%
Christian Kofane 3.5 1.4 0.42 47.5% 47.9% 17.6%
Jonas Hofmann 2.21 0.83 0.28 29.8% 24.3% 11.3%
Afonso Moreira 2.16 0.77 0.19 42.4% 45.9% 12.7%

Union Berlin: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Tim Skarke 1.9 0.85 0.11 25.3% 14.0% 3.7%
Woo-Yeong Jeong 1.7 0.53 0.25 25.0% 23.5% 12.7%
Tom Rothe 1.39 0.48 0.16 26.6% 22.6% 9.8%
Livan Burcu 2.24 0.37 0.12 13.8% 22.7% 4.7%
Andras Schafer 1.13 0.34 0.09 18.6% 15.0% 5.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Leverkusen clean sheet 30.9%
Union Berlin clean sheet 11.7%
Leverkusen win to nil 26.7%
Union Berlin win to nil 7.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 59.6% draw 21.2% away 19.3%
double_chance
1X 80.8% 12 78.8% X2 40.4%
dnb
home 75.6% away 24.4%
btts
yes 60.9% no 39.2%
clean_sheet
home 31.6% away 11.7%
win_to_nil
home 27.4% away 7.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.2% home_by_2 18.1% home_by_3plus 19.3%
away_by_1 11.8% away_by_2 5.2% away_by_3plus 2.3%
correct_score
0-0 4.1% 0-1 3.8% 0-2 2.5%
0-3 1.0% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 7.4% 1-1 9.6% 1-2 5.3%
1-3 2.0% 1-4 0.6% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.5% 2-1 9.8% 2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.2% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 6.1% 3-1 7.0% 3-2 4.0%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 3.3% 4-1 3.8% 4-2 2.2%
4-3 0.8% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 1.4% 5-1 1.6% 5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.4%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 100.0% p 9.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.9% under_0.5 4.1% over_1.5 84.6%
under_1.5 15.4% over_2.5 64.1% under_2.5 35.9%
over_3.5 42.0% under_3.5 58.0% over_4.5 23.8%
under_4.5 76.2% over_5.5 11.8% under_5.5 88.3%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 88.3% under_0.5 11.7% over_1.5 63.2%
under_1.5 36.8% over_2.5 36.3% under_2.5 63.7%
team_away
over_0.5 68.4% under_0.5 31.6% over_1.5 32.1%
under_1.5 68.0% over_2.5 11.1% under_2.5 88.9%
most
home 59.6% draw 21.2% away 19.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 19.3% away_+2.5 80.7% home_-1.5 37.4%
away_+1.5 62.6% home_-0.5 59.6% away_+0.5 40.4%
home_+0.5 80.8% away_-0.5 19.3% home_+1.5 92.5%
away_-1.5 7.5% home_+2.5 97.7% away_-2.5 2.3%
total_exact
exact_0 4.1% exact_1 11.3% exact_2 20.5%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 18.2% exact_5 12.0%
exact_6 6.6% exact_7plus 5.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 57.0% draw 29.1% away 13.9%
total
over_0.5 83.3% under_0.5 16.7% over_1.5 53.4%
under_1.5 46.6% over_2.5 26.7% under_2.5 73.3%
btts
yes 28.1% no 71.9%
total_exact
exact_0 16.7% exact_1 29.9% exact_2 26.8%
exact_3 16.0% exact_4plus 10.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.5% draw 34.1% away 22.4%
total
over_0.5 80.2% under_0.5 19.8% over_1.5 48.2%
under_1.5 51.8% over_2.5 22.2% under_2.5 77.8%
btts
yes 29.3% no 70.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 49.3% H/D 5.8% H/A 1.9%
D/H 12.7% D/D 9.9% D/A 6.5%
A/H 2.0% A/D 3.2% A/A 8.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.3% under_7.5 24.7% over_8.5 64.1%
under_8.5 35.9% over_9.5 52.2% under_9.5 47.8%
over_10.5 40.5% under_10.5 59.5% over_11.5 30.0%
under_11.5 70.0% over_12.5 21.2% under_12.5 78.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.8% under_3.5 21.2% over_4.5 65.1%
under_4.5 34.9% over_5.5 50.4% under_5.5 49.6%
team_away
over_3.5 56.2% under_3.5 43.8% over_4.5 38.9%
under_4.5 61.1% over_5.5 24.7% under_5.5 75.3%
most
home 62.2% draw 9.8% away 28.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.1% away_+3.5 68.9% home_-1.5 51.6%
away_+1.5 48.4% home_-0.5 62.2% away_+0.5 37.8%
home_+0.5 72.0% away_-0.5 28.0% home_+1.5 80.3%
away_-1.5 19.7% home_+3.5 91.8% away_-3.5 8.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 71.8% under_22.5 28.2% over_24.5 60.4%
under_24.5 39.6% over_26.5 48.3% under_26.5 51.7%
over_28.5 36.6% under_28.5 63.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 81.4% under_10.5 18.6% over_12.5 67.8%
under_12.5 32.2% over_14.5 52.3% under_14.5 47.7%
team_away
over_10.5 55.5% under_10.5 44.5% over_12.5 37.7%
under_12.5 62.4% over_14.5 23.1% under_14.5 76.9%
most
home 68.1% draw 5.2% away 26.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 44.4% away_+4.5 55.6% home_-2.5 56.6%
away_+2.5 43.5% home_-0.5 68.1% away_+0.5 31.9%
home_+0.5 73.3% away_-0.5 26.7% home_+2.5 82.3%
away_-2.5 17.7% home_+4.5 89.1% away_-4.5 10.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.6% under_6.5 18.4% over_7.5 71.8%
under_7.5 28.2% over_8.5 60.7% under_8.5 39.3%
over_9.5 49.2% under_9.5 50.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.3% under_3.5 21.7% over_4.5 64.2%
under_4.5 35.8% over_5.5 49.3% under_5.5 50.7%
team_away
over_3.5 54.1% under_3.5 45.9% over_4.5 36.4%
under_4.5 63.6% over_5.5 22.4% under_5.5 77.6%
most
home 63.8% draw 10.5% away 25.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 40.6% away_+2.5 59.4% home_-0.5 63.8%
away_+0.5 36.2% home_+0.5 74.3% away_-0.5 25.7%
home_+2.5 89.4% away_-2.5 10.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.9% under_2.5 23.1% over_3.5 57.6%
under_3.5 42.4% over_4.5 38.0% under_4.5 62.0%
over_5.5 22.2% under_5.5 77.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.8% under_1.5 45.2% over_2.5 27.9%
under_2.5 72.1%
team_away
over_1.5 64.8% under_1.5 35.2% over_2.5 38.0%
under_2.5 62.0%
most
home 32.7% draw 20.3% away 47.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.8% away_+1.5 83.2% home_-0.5 32.7%
away_+0.5 67.3% home_+0.5 53.0% away_-0.5 47.0%
home_+1.5 72.2% away_-1.5 27.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 49.4% under_20.5 50.6% over_22.5 37.4%
under_22.5 62.6% over_24.5 26.9% under_24.5 73.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 44.1% under_9.5 55.9% over_11.5 27.6%
under_11.5 72.4% over_13.5 15.7% under_13.5 84.3%
team_away
over_9.5 63.1% under_9.5 36.9% over_11.5 46.4%
under_11.5 53.6% over_13.5 31.4% under_13.5 68.6%
most
home 33.5% draw 6.1% away 60.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.1% away_+3.5 81.9% home_-0.5 33.5%
away_+0.5 66.5% home_+2.5 52.5% away_-2.5 47.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.9% no 87.1%
home
yes 4.5% no 95.6%
away
yes 8.8% no 91.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Leverkusen predictions · Union Berlin predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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