Ligue 1
LorientLorientLWDLW
Full time1-0Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1016:15UK16°C · Cloudy
MonacoMonacoWWDWD

Lorient 1-0 Monaco both teams to score: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Both teams to score: Yes55.7%
Both teams to score: No44.3%

Result

Lorient1-0Monaco
Yes

We called Yes at 55.7% and it missed.

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Both teams to score · Yes55.7%

Both Teams to Score

YesModel lean55.7%
No44.3%

Related market Over 2.5 goals 50.9%

Recent scoring & conceding

Goals scored and conceded per game over each side's recent matches. The bar runs from 0 to 3.5 goals per game.

Lorient scored
1.2
Lorient conceded
1.2
Monaco scored
1.8
Monaco conceded
1.0

Each team to score

Lorient to score74.5%
Lorient 2+ goals39.7%
Monaco to score73.9%
Monaco 2+ goals38.9%

By half

Both score in 1st half16.4%
Both score in 2nd half35.9%

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

7.3%

0

16.8%

1

25.0%

2

22.0%

3

15.0%

4

13.4%

5+

Recent trends

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side's recent games.

LorientBTTS 3/5Over 2.5 3/5
MonacoBTTS 4/5Over 2.5 3/5

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

LorientLorientLast 5
L
Loss · 1-2
W
Win · 1-0
D
Draw · 2-2
L
Loss · 1-2
W
Win · 1-0

2 wins · 1 draw · 2 losses

MonacoMonacoLast 5
W
Win · 2-0
W
Win · 2-1
D
Draw · 1-1
W
Win · 2-1
D
Draw · 2-2

3 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2LorientLorient wins
2Draws
1MonacoMonaco wins
4.0Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
MonacoMonaco
1 – 3
LorientLorient
LorientLorient
3 – 1
MonacoMonaco
MonacoMonaco
2 – 2
LorientLorient
LorientLorient
2 – 2
MonacoMonaco
MonacoMonaco
3 – 1
LorientLorient

Match outlook

PickLorient38.3%
Draw26.1%
Monaco35.6%

The model leans Lorient to win.

See the full prediction

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

53.4%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0218Calibration error
72,243Matches graded

In 34,665 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 54.3% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.4%✗ 52.0%✓ 50.8%✓ 51.2%✓ 57.4%✓ 50.5%✗ 57.9%✗ 55.0%✗ 58.1%✓ 61.6%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sassuolo vs Lazio2026-10-27Yes 50.4%Hit
Roma vs Cagliari2026-10-27No 52.0%Miss
Torino vs Como2026-10-27Yes 50.8%Hit
Barnet vs York2026-10-27Yes 51.2%Hit
AIK vs Elfsborg2026-10-27Yes 57.4%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Both teams to score · Yes at 55.7%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Lorient have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, Monaco 1.8 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 50.9% for over 2.5 and 75.9% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 goals a game. Lorient have seen both teams score in 3 of their last 5, Monaco in 4 of 5. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Looking at totals, the model sees 50.9% for three or more goals and 75.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Lorient favoured at 38.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

38.3%Favoured: Lorient
55.7%Both Teams to Score
50.9%Over 2.5 goals

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 55.7% on Both Teams to Score. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The TacticianReads a balanced game from the 50.9% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutLorient are the model’s pick on the result at 38.3%, context for how the goals may flow.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.
LorientLorient

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MonacoMonaco
Statistic
Lorient
Monaco
BTTS rate
50.0%
66.7%

clean sheets
50.0%
33.3%

goals scored per game
1.0
1.7

Bar scales · Recorded rate (%): 0–100 · Goals per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

LorientLorient (1)
Aiyegun Tosin
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
16.0%
6.25
1+ shot on target
33.8%
2.96
2+ shots
29.0%
3.45
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.52
On target0.97
Goals0.41
MonacoMonaco (1)
Anssumane Fati
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
29.8%
3.36
1+ shot on target
59.5%
1.68
2+ shots
52.9%
1.89
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.86
On target1.97
Goals0.77

FAQ

Did both teams score in Lorient vs Monaco?
We rated Both Teams to Score at 55.7%. Both teams did not both score, final score 1-0.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 1, Both Teams to Score

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Related

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.