Premier League
Leeds vs 
Newcastle Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 52.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 76.6% for over 7.5 to 23.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.5%. Between the two sides, Leeds are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 51.5%, with a level count at 9.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 8.5 corners | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 10.5 corners | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| 11.5 corners | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 23.7% | 76.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
73.3%
58.8%
44.3%
65.0%
48.9%
34.4%
Corner handicap
| Leeds line | Leeds | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| -0.5 | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| +0.5 | 61.5% | 38.6% |
| +1.5 | 70.7% | 29.3% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Leeds.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Leeds over 4.5 corners sits at 58.8% and Newcastle at 48.9%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Leeds vs Newcastle?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 54.5% for Leeds vs Newcastle.
Which team will win the corner count in Leeds vs Newcastle?
The model rates Leeds to win the corner count at 51.5%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.