Manchester United vs Manchester City prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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Manchester United vs Manchester City: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Premier League
Manchester United

WWLWD

Sun, 13 Sep 202616:30UK21°C · Cloudy
Manchester City

DLWWW

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Draw or Manchester City

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.000 <= 0.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Manchester CityWin probability
42.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals80.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
DRA or Manchester City67.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.48
Over 8.5 corners62.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

Manchester United versus Manchester City on 13 September 2026 tilts towards Manchester City in our numbers (43%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Manchester City higher (46%) than our model does. • No strong lean on goals (58% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Manchester United, 1 draws and 2 for Manchester City at 2.4 goals per match. • On the availability front, Manchester United have Baleba ruled out, Bayindir ruled out, Heaton ruled out, De Ligt ruled out. The run in: Manchester United arrive W3 D2 L1, Manchester City W4 D1 L1. Benjamin Sesko drives the home shot volume, 1.5 on target per 90. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.000 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Manchester City win42.9%@ 2.33
Over 10.5 corners42.4%@ 2.36
Over 11.5 corners33.6%@ 2.98
Medium risk

Both teams to score60.9%@ 1.64
Over 2.5 goals58.1%@ 1.72
Manchester United or draw57.1%@ 1.75
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.6%@ 8.61
1-2 correct score8.9%@ 11.27
2-1 correct score7.8%@ 12.79

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Man Utd

32.3%+3.1%

Draw

24.9%+0.1%

Man City

42.9%-3.0%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.000 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.580.9%

High probability

Over 2.558.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes60.9%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.2%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.1%

Good chance

Over 10.542.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.533.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersManchester United47.6%Manchester City42.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.567.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.555.8%

Good chance

Over 26.544.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.533.7%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Manchester United19.8 taken12.3 faced
Manchester City15.2 taken9.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Manchester United (3 games)

8.0 / 14.7

Manchester City (3 games)

8.3 / 7.3

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.580.9%2.558.1%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.000 <= 0.

Form & head-to-head

Manchester UnitedWWLWD
Manchester CityDLWWW

Last 5 meetings: Manchester United 2 · 1 draws · Manchester City 2 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-01-17Manchester United 2-0 Manchester City
2025-09-14Manchester City 3-0 Manchester United
2025-04-06Manchester United 0-0 Manchester City
2024-12-15Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United
2024-03-03Manchester City 3-1 Manchester United

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Manchester UnitedManchester City
League position#11 of 20#1 of 20
Record W-D-L1-1-13-0-0
Current streakD1W3
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.83 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 53%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Benjamin SeskoManchester United · key player
To score32.5%

@ 3.08

1+ on target63.9%

@ 1.56

2+ shots60.2%

@ 1.66

Shots/90 2.95SoT/90 1.48Goals/90 0.57
Erling HaalandManchester City · key player
To score49.6%

@ 2.02

1+ on target82.0%

@ 1.22

2+ shots86.9%

@ 1.15

Shots/90 3.68SoT/90 1.78Goals/90 0.71
Matheus CunhaManchester United · in form
To score30.6%

@ 3.27

1+ on target68.5%

@ 1.46

2+ shots80.0%

@ 1.25

Shots/90 3.45SoT/90 1.33Goals/90 0.42
Antoine SemenyoManchester City · in form
To score29.4%

@ 3.40

1+ on target65.5%

@ 1.53

2+ shots74.4%

@ 1.34

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 1.1Goals/90 0.36
Marcus RashfordManchester United · in form
To score21.6%

@ 4.63

1+ on target53.9%

@ 1.86

2+ shots59.8%

@ 1.67

Shots/90 3.31SoT/90 1.27Goals/90 0.4
Phil FodenManchester City · in form
To score19.7%

@ 5.08

1+ on target42.8%

@ 2.34

2+ shots54.5%

@ 1.83

Shots/90 2.58SoT/90 0.79Goals/90 0.31

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Manchester United win3.253.10
Draw3.804.02
Manchester City win2.102.33
Over 2.5 goals1.531.72
Under 2.5 goals2.502.39

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Manchester United win3.01
Draw3.98
Manchester City win2.40
Both teams to score1.64

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.72
Over 3.5 goals2.80
Manchester United most3.01
Manchester City most2.40

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.84
Over 10.5 corners2.33
Manchester United most2.09
Manchester City most2.37

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.39
Over 3.5 cards1.96
Over 4.5 cards3.16
Over 5.5 cards5.80
Manchester United most2.86
Manchester City most2.29

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.29
Over 7.5 SoT1.48
Over 8.5 SoT1.79
Over 9.5 SoT2.24
Manchester United most2.02
Manchester City most2.57

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.49
Over 24.5 shots1.79
Over 26.5 shots2.25
Over 28.5 shots2.97
Manchester United most1.74
Manchester City most2.70

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.07
Over 22.5 fouls3.08
Over 24.5 fouls5.12

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • BalebaManchester UnitedOut0% to play
  • BayindirManchester UnitedOut0% to play
  • HeatonManchester UnitedOut0% to play
  • De LigtManchester UnitedOut0% to play
  • ShawManchester UnitedDoubtful75% to play
  • FredricsonManchester UnitedOut0% to play
  • AmadManchester UnitedOut0% to play
  • UgarteManchester UnitedOut0% to play
  • CollyerManchester UnitedOut0% to play
  • AlleyneManchester CityOut0% to play
  • DokuManchester CityOut0% to play
  • RodrigoManchester CityOut0% to play
  • ReijndersManchester CityOut0% to play
  • EcheverriManchester CityOut0% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 67.0% Over 24.5 55.8% Over 26.5 44.4% Over 28.5 33.7%
Most: Manchester United 57.4% Most: Manchester City 37.0%
Manchester United Over 13.2 49.8% Manchester City Over 13.2 35.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 77.8% Over 7.5 67.4% Over 8.5 56.0% Over 9.5 44.7%
Most: Manchester United 49.5% Most: Manchester City 38.9%
Manchester United Over 4.2 51.6% Manchester City Over 4.2 43.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.8% Over 3.5 51.0% Over 4.5 31.6%
Most: Manchester United 35.0% Most: Manchester City 43.6%
Manchester United Over 1.8 52.2% Manchester City Over 1.8 58.5%

Manchester United: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Benjamin Sesko 2.95 1.48 0.57 63.9% 60.2% 32.5%
Matheus Cunha 3.45 1.33 0.42 68.5% 80.0% 30.6%
Marcus Rashford 3.31 1.27 0.4 53.9% 59.8% 21.6%
Bryan Mbeumo 2.42 1.05 0.44 63.3% 67.1% 34.3%
Bruno Fernandes 2.76 0.79 0.29 53.1% 74.1% 24.3%

Manchester City: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Erling Haaland 3.68 1.78 0.71 82.0% 86.9% 49.6%
Antoine Semenyo 2.75 1.1 0.36 65.5% 74.4% 29.4%
Phil Foden 2.58 0.79 0.31 42.8% 54.5% 19.7%
Mathis Cherki 2.37 0.78 0.31 41.0% 47.6% 18.9%
Enzo Fernández 1.89 0.76 0.24 50.5% 52.2% 19.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Manchester United clean sheet 20.1%
Manchester City clean sheet 24.2%
Manchester United win to nil 14.6%
Manchester City win to nil 18.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 33.2% draw 25.1% away 41.7%
double_chance
1X 58.4% 12 74.9% X2 66.8%
dnb
home 44.4% away 55.6%
btts
yes 60.9% no 39.1%
clean_sheet
home 20.1% away 24.4%
win_to_nil
home 14.7% away 18.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.8% home_by_2 9.8% home_by_3plus 5.7%
away_by_1 20.2% away_by_2 12.6% away_by_3plus 8.8%
correct_score
0-0 5.4% 0-1 7.3% 0-2 6.3%
0-3 3.4% 0-4 1.4% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 6.4% 1-1 11.6% 1-2 8.9%
1-3 4.8% 1-4 1.9% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 4.9% 2-1 7.8% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 3.4% 2-4 1.4% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 2.3% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 1.3% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.6% under_0.5 5.4% over_1.5 80.9%
under_1.5 19.1% over_2.5 58.1% under_2.5 41.9%
over_3.5 35.7% under_3.5 64.3% over_4.5 18.8%
under_4.5 81.2% over_5.5 8.6% under_5.5 91.4%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.3%
under_1.5 58.7% over_2.5 17.0% under_2.5 83.0%
team_away
over_0.5 79.9% under_0.5 20.1% over_1.5 47.7%
under_1.5 52.3% over_2.5 21.9% under_2.5 78.1%
most
home 33.2% draw 25.1% away 41.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.7% away_+2.5 94.3% home_-1.5 15.5%
away_+1.5 84.5% home_-0.5 33.2% away_+0.5 66.8%
home_+0.5 58.4% away_-0.5 41.7% home_+1.5 78.6%
away_-1.5 21.4% home_+2.5 91.2% away_-2.5 8.8%
total_exact
exact_0 5.4% exact_1 13.6% exact_2 22.8%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.9% exact_5 10.2%
exact_6 5.1% exact_7plus 3.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 20.9% draw 43.0% away 36.1%
total
over_0.5 67.6% under_0.5 32.4% over_1.5 31.1%
under_1.5 68.9% over_2.5 10.5% under_2.5 89.5%
btts
yes 17.8% no 82.2%
total_exact
exact_0 32.4% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.6%
exact_3 7.7% exact_4plus 2.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.5% draw 31.5% away 37.1%
total
over_0.5 85.5% under_0.5 14.5% over_1.5 57.5%
under_1.5 42.5% over_2.5 30.5% under_2.5 69.5%
btts
yes 38.2% no 61.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 14.1% H/D 4.2% H/A 2.6%
D/H 13.5% D/D 13.5% D/A 15.9%
A/H 3.1% A/D 5.9% A/A 27.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.4% under_7.5 23.6% over_8.5 65.8%
under_8.5 34.3% over_9.5 54.3% under_9.5 45.8%
over_10.5 42.8% under_10.5 57.2% over_11.5 32.4%
under_11.5 67.6% over_12.5 23.5% under_12.5 76.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.0% under_3.5 29.0% over_4.5 56.0%
under_4.5 44.0% over_5.5 41.3% under_5.5 58.7%
team_away
over_3.5 67.4% under_3.5 32.6% over_4.5 51.7%
under_4.5 48.3% over_5.5 37.1% under_5.5 62.9%
most
home 47.8% draw 10.1% away 42.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.9% away_+3.5 79.1% home_-1.5 37.9%
away_+1.5 62.1% home_-0.5 47.8% away_+0.5 52.2%
home_+0.5 57.8% away_-0.5 42.2% home_+1.5 67.4%
away_-1.5 32.6% home_+3.5 82.9% away_-3.5 17.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 67.0% under_22.5 33.0% over_24.5 55.8%
under_24.5 44.2% over_26.5 44.4% under_26.5 55.6%
over_28.5 33.7% under_28.5 66.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.5% under_10.5 27.5% over_12.5 57.5%
under_12.5 42.5% over_14.5 42.4% under_14.5 57.6%
team_away
over_10.5 59.5% under_10.5 40.5% over_12.5 42.9%
under_12.5 57.1% over_14.5 28.4% under_14.5 71.6%
most
home 57.4% draw 5.6% away 37.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.6% away_+4.5 65.4% home_-2.5 45.8%
away_+2.5 54.2% home_-0.5 57.4% away_+0.5 42.7%
home_+0.5 63.0% away_-0.5 37.0% home_+2.5 73.3%
away_-2.5 26.7% home_+4.5 81.9% away_-4.5 18.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 77.8% under_6.5 22.2% over_7.5 67.4%
under_7.5 32.6% over_8.5 56.0% under_8.5 44.0%
over_9.5 44.7% under_9.5 55.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.7% under_3.5 32.3% over_4.5 51.6%
under_4.5 48.4% over_5.5 36.7% under_5.5 63.3%
team_away
over_3.5 60.8% under_3.5 39.2% over_4.5 44.0%
under_4.5 56.1% over_5.5 29.4% under_5.5 70.6%
most
home 49.5% draw 11.6% away 38.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.6% away_+2.5 72.4% home_-0.5 49.5%
away_+0.5 50.5% home_+0.5 61.1% away_-0.5 38.9%
home_+2.5 80.7% away_-2.5 19.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.8% under_2.5 28.2% over_3.5 51.0%
under_3.5 49.0% over_4.5 31.6% under_4.5 68.4%
over_5.5 17.3% under_5.5 82.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 52.2% under_1.5 47.8% over_2.5 25.6%
under_2.5 74.4%
team_away
over_1.5 58.5% under_1.5 41.5% over_2.5 31.5%
under_2.5 68.6%
most
home 35.0% draw 21.4% away 43.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.8% away_+1.5 82.3% home_-0.5 35.0%
away_+0.5 65.0% home_+0.5 56.4% away_-0.5 43.6%
home_+1.5 75.7% away_-1.5 24.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 48.4% under_20.5 51.6% over_22.5 32.4%
under_22.5 67.6% over_24.5 19.6% under_24.5 80.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 59.6% under_9.5 40.4% over_11.5 36.5%
under_11.5 63.5% over_13.5 18.5% under_13.5 81.6%
team_away
over_9.5 53.7% under_9.5 46.4% over_11.5 30.8%
under_11.5 69.2% over_13.5 14.5% under_13.5 85.6%
most
home 50.1% draw 8.5% away 41.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.1% away_+3.5 73.9% home_-0.5 50.1%
away_+0.5 50.0% home_+2.5 74.0% away_-2.5 26.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 8.9% no 91.1%
home
yes 5.2% no 94.8%
away
yes 3.9% no 96.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Manchester United predictions · Manchester City predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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