Premier League
Leeds vs 
Newcastle Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 12.5% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Leeds have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, Newcastle 1.8 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 53.1% for over 2.5 and 77.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 0-1 | 7.4% |
| 2-0 | 6.8% |
| 0-0 | 6.7% |
| 2-2 | 5.8% |
Score probability grid
| Leeds \ Newcastle | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 8% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Leeds goals, columns = Newcastle. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
57.1%Both Teams to Score53.1%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 53.1% for three or more goals and 77.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Leeds favoured at 41.9%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Leeds 0 · 3 draws · Newcastle 2 · 2.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Leeds vs Newcastle?
The model's most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Newcastle is 1-1 at 12.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.