Premier League
Leeds vs 
Everton Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.3% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.4% for over 2.5 and 71.7% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 0-1 | 11.0% |
| 0-0 | 9.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-0 | 8.4% |
| 0-2 | 8.1% |
| 2-1 | 6.9% |
| 2-0 | 4.9% |
Score probability grid
| Leeds \ Everton | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | · | 1% | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Leeds goals, columns = Everton. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
50.7%Both Teams to Score45.4%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 45.4% for three or more goals and 71.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Everton favoured at 44.0%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Leeds vs Everton?
The model's most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Everton is 1-1 at 13.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.