Premier League
Leeds vs 
Everton Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 48.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.1% for over 2.5 to 15.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.9%. Between the two sides, Everton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 52.3%, with a level count at 20.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 29.8% | 70.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 15.9% | 84.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
44.0%
18.9%
62.8%
35.8%
Card handicap
| Leeds line | Leeds | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| -0.5 | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| +0.5 | 47.8% | 52.3% |
| +1.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.9% | 41.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.9% | 72.1% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Leeds vs Everton. The model leans toward Everton for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
48.9%Over 3.5 cards9.3%Any red card44.0%Leeds over 1.5 cards62.8%Everton over 1.5 cards42.6%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Leeds over 1.5 cards sits at 44.0% and Everton at 62.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.3% (Leeds 5.1%, Everton 4.3%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Leeds vs Everton?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.9% for Leeds vs Everton.
Will there be a red card in Leeds vs Everton?
The model rates a red card for either side at 9.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Leeds vs Everton?
The model rates Everton to pick up more cards at 52.3%, with a level count at 20.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.