Leeds vs Everton prediction & probabilities (2025-08-18)

By /

Leeds vs Everton: model prediction

Premier League
Leeds
Mon, 18 Aug 2025vs
Everton
Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

71%

Draw or Everton

66%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
EvertonWin probability
44.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Draw or Everton71.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Over 8.5 corners65.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.53

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Everton: 44% is the model's line for this Premier League meeting on 18 August 2025. Our number sits above the market's 32% for Everton. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (45% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Leeds, 2 draws and 3 for Everton at 2.6 goals per match. Squad notes: Leeds have Gudmundsson ruled out, Gruev ruled out, Stach ruled out, Okafor ruled out. Lukas Nmecha drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. Form guide over the last six: Leeds W0 D2 L4, Everton W3 D1 L2. Fatigue may matter, with Everton 728 days shorter on recovery than Leeds. Leeds are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.7%@ 2.19
Over 2.5 goals45.4%@ 2.20
Everton win44.0%@ 2.27
Medium risk

Leeds or draw56.0%@ 1.79
Over 9.5 corners55.5%@ 1.80
Under 2.5 goals54.6%@ 1.83
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.54
0-1 correct score11.0%@ 9.12
0-0 correct score9.0%@ 11.17

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Leeds

28.5%-12.5%

Draw

27.5%+0.1%

Everton

44.0%+12.4%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.4%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.5%

Good chance

Over 10.545.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersLeeds 56.6% · Everton 33.5%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.7%2.545.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.7%

Discipline: NO_BET, outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Lukas NmechaLeeds · key player
To score17.5%

@ 5.71

1+ on target40.4%

@ 2.48

2+ shots25.2%

@ 3.97

Shots/90 2.51SoT/90 1.34Goals/90 0.5
BetoEverton · key player
To score22.5%

@ 4.44

1+ on target44.9%

@ 2.23

2+ shots40.0%

@ 2.50

Shots/90 2.7SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.5
Dominic Calvert-LewinLeeds · in form
To score32.9%

@ 3.04

1+ on target62.1%

@ 1.61

2+ shots61.6%

@ 1.62

Shots/90 2.4SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.46
Dominic Calvert-LewinEverton · in form
To score11.1%

@ 9.01

1+ on target51.8%

@ 1.93

2+ shots57.3%

@ 1.75

Shots/90 2.77SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.17
Brenden AaronsonLeeds · in form
To score10.0%

@ 10.00

1+ on target33.5%

@ 2.99

2+ shots35.2%

@ 2.84

Shots/90 1.64SoT/90 0.54Goals/90 0.14
Carlos AlcarazEverton · in form
To score5.7%

@ 17.54

1+ on target36.8%

@ 2.72

2+ shots37.9%

@ 2.64

Shots/90 2.9SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.13

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Leeds win3.47
Draw3.58
Everton win2.31
Both teams to score1.97

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.40
Over 2.5 goals2.20
Over 3.5 goals4.15
Leeds most3.47
Everton most2.31

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.44
Over 9.5 corners1.72
Over 10.5 corners2.14
Leeds most1.76
Everton most2.98

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.43
Over 3.5 cards2.04
Over 4.5 cards3.36
Over 5.5 cards6.29
Leeds most3.72
Everton most1.91

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.33
Over 7.5 SoT1.57
Over 8.5 SoT1.93
Over 9.5 SoT2.49
Leeds most1.85
Everton most2.95

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.55
Over 24.5 shots1.89
Over 26.5 shots2.41
Over 28.5 shots3.23
Leeds most1.66
Everton most2.91

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.70
Over 22.5 fouls2.35
Over 24.5 fouls3.58

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • GudmundssonLeedsOut0% to play
  • GruevLeedsOut0% to play
  • StachLeedsOut0% to play
  • OkaforLeedsOut0% to play
  • BranthwaiteEvertonOut0% to play
  • GanaEvertonDoubtful50% to play
  • GrealishEvertonOut0% to play
  • Jack Grealish, Carlos Alcaraz, Tyrique GeorgeEvertonOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.2% Over 7.5 63.9% Over 8.5 51.8% Over 9.5 40.1%
Most: Leeds 54.2% Most: Everton 33.9%
Leeds Over 4.2 52.0% Everton Over 4.2 37.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.1% Over 3.5 48.9% Over 4.5 29.8%
Most: Leeds 26.9% Most: Everton 52.3%
Leeds Over 1.8 44.0% Everton Over 1.8 62.8%

Leeds: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Lukas Nmecha 2.51 1.34 0.5 40.4% 25.2% 17.5%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 2.4 1.12 0.46 62.1% 61.6% 32.9%
Brenden Aaronson 1.64 0.54 0.14 33.5% 35.2% 10.0%
Daniel James 2.34 0.5 0 14.6% 16.8% 0.0%
Sean Longstaff 1.44 0.36 0.18 15.9% 15.4% 8.3%

Everton: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Beto 2.7 1.17 0.5 44.9% 40.0% 22.5%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin 2.77 1.05 0.17 51.8% 57.3% 11.1%
Carlos Alcaraz 2.9 1.01 0.13 36.8% 37.9% 5.7%
Jesper Lindstrom 1.97 0.7 0 32.8% 30.8% 0.0%
Iliman Ndiaye 1.36 0.66 0.26 44.9% 34.8% 20.9%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 28.8% draw 28.0% away 43.3%
double_chance
1X 56.7% 12 72.1% X2 71.2%
dnb
home 39.9% away 60.1%
btts
yes 50.7% no 49.3%
clean_sheet
home 24.7% away 33.6%
win_to_nil
home 15.8% away 24.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.3% home_by_2 8.0% home_by_3plus 3.5%
away_by_1 22.4% away_by_2 13.1% away_by_3plus 7.8%
correct_score
0-0 9.0% 0-1 11.0% 0-2 8.1%
0-3 3.8% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 8.4% 1-1 13.3% 1-2 8.8%
1-3 4.1% 1-4 1.4% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 4.9% 2-1 6.9% 2-2 4.8%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 1.8% 3-1 2.5% 3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.1% under_0.5 9.0% over_1.5 71.7%
under_1.5 28.3% over_2.5 45.4% under_2.5 54.6%
over_3.5 24.1% under_3.5 75.9% over_4.5 10.8%
under_4.5 89.2% over_5.5 4.2% under_5.5 95.8%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 66.4% under_0.5 33.6% over_1.5 29.9%
under_1.5 70.1% over_2.5 9.9% under_2.5 90.1%
team_away
over_0.5 75.3% under_0.5 24.7% over_1.5 40.7%
under_1.5 59.3% over_2.5 16.6% under_2.5 83.4%
most
home 28.8% draw 28.0% away 43.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.5% away_+2.5 96.6% home_-1.5 11.5%
away_+1.5 88.6% home_-0.5 28.8% away_+0.5 71.2%
home_+0.5 56.7% away_-0.5 43.3% home_+1.5 79.1%
away_-1.5 20.9% home_+2.5 92.2% away_-2.5 7.8%
total_exact
exact_0 9.0% exact_1 19.4% exact_2 26.3%
exact_3 21.3% exact_4 13.3% exact_5 6.6%
exact_6 2.8% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.6% draw 43.6% away 30.8%
total
over_0.5 67.5% under_0.5 32.6% over_1.5 30.9%
under_1.5 69.1% over_2.5 10.4% under_2.5 89.6%
btts
yes 18.4% no 81.6%
total_exact
exact_0 32.6% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.5%
exact_3 7.7% exact_4plus 2.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.0% draw 39.9% away 28.0%
total
over_0.5 72.9% under_0.5 27.1% over_1.5 37.5%
under_1.5 62.5% over_2.5 14.4% under_2.5 85.6%
btts
yes 22.9% no 77.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.7% H/D 4.4% H/A 1.5%
D/H 14.0% D/D 17.4% D/A 12.2%
A/H 2.2% A/D 5.7% A/A 22.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.5% under_7.5 20.5% over_8.5 69.4%
under_8.5 30.6% over_9.5 58.2% under_9.5 41.8%
over_10.5 46.6% under_10.5 53.4% over_11.5 35.8%
under_11.5 64.2% over_12.5 26.3% under_12.5 73.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.3% under_3.5 21.7% over_4.5 64.8%
under_4.5 35.2% over_5.5 50.5% under_5.5 49.5%
team_away
over_3.5 63.7% under_3.5 36.3% over_4.5 47.3%
under_4.5 52.7% over_5.5 32.6% under_5.5 67.4%
most
home 56.8% draw 9.7% away 33.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.0% away_+3.5 72.0% home_-1.5 46.7%
away_+1.5 53.3% home_-0.5 56.8% away_+0.5 43.2%
home_+0.5 66.4% away_-0.5 33.6% home_+1.5 75.1%
away_-1.5 24.9% home_+3.5 88.1% away_-3.5 11.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 64.5% under_22.5 35.5% over_24.5 53.0%
under_24.5 47.0% over_26.5 41.6% under_26.5 58.4%
over_28.5 31.0% under_28.5 69.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.5% under_10.5 27.5% over_12.5 57.4%
under_12.5 42.6% over_14.5 42.2% under_14.5 57.8%
team_away
over_10.5 55.6% under_10.5 44.4% over_12.5 38.8%
under_12.5 61.2% over_14.5 24.8% under_14.5 75.2%
most
home 60.1% draw 5.6% away 34.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.9% away_+4.5 63.1% home_-2.5 48.4%
away_+2.5 51.6% home_-0.5 60.1% away_+0.5 39.9%
home_+0.5 65.7% away_-0.5 34.3% home_+2.5 75.8%
away_-2.5 24.2% home_+4.5 84.0% away_-4.5 16.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.2% under_6.5 24.8% over_7.5 63.8%
under_7.5 36.2% over_8.5 51.8% under_8.5 48.2%
over_9.5 40.1% under_9.5 59.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.4% under_3.5 31.6% over_4.5 52.0%
under_4.5 48.0% over_5.5 36.7% under_5.5 63.3%
team_away
over_3.5 54.8% under_3.5 45.2% over_4.5 37.3%
under_4.5 62.7% over_5.5 23.2% under_5.5 76.8%
most
home 54.2% draw 11.9% away 33.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.5% away_+2.5 69.5% home_-0.5 54.2%
away_+0.5 45.8% home_+0.5 66.1% away_-0.5 33.9%
home_+2.5 84.9% away_-2.5 15.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.1% under_2.5 29.9% over_3.5 48.9%
under_3.5 51.1% over_4.5 29.8% under_4.5 70.2%
over_5.5 15.9% under_5.5 84.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 44.0% under_1.5 56.0% over_2.5 18.9%
under_2.5 81.1%
team_away
over_1.5 62.8% under_1.5 37.2% over_2.5 35.8%
under_2.5 64.2%
most
home 26.9% draw 20.8% away 52.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 12.2% away_+1.5 87.8% home_-0.5 26.9%
away_+0.5 73.1% home_+0.5 47.8% away_-0.5 52.3%
home_+1.5 68.8% away_-1.5 31.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 58.9% under_20.5 41.2% over_22.5 42.6%
under_22.5 57.4% over_24.5 27.9% under_24.5 72.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.9% under_9.5 42.1% over_11.5 34.8%
under_11.5 65.2% over_13.5 17.2% under_13.5 82.8%
team_away
over_9.5 69.2% under_9.5 30.8% over_11.5 46.9%
under_11.5 53.2% over_13.5 26.6% under_13.5 73.4%
most
home 37.4% draw 8.1% away 54.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.3% away_+3.5 82.7% home_-0.5 37.4%
away_+0.5 62.6% home_+2.5 61.8% away_-2.5 38.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.3% no 90.8%
home
yes 5.1% no 94.9%
away
yes 4.3% no 95.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Leeds predictions · Everton predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Premier LeagueLeedsEvertonTrack record