R. Racing Club vs Villarreal CF: model prediction
La LigaR. Racing Club
Sun, 16 Aug 202606:00UK
Villarreal CF
Model’s top convictions
74%
R. Racing Club or draw
74%
Over 1.5 goals
59%
Over 8.5 corners
No bet
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model’s best bet
R. Racing ClubWin probability
47.5%
Top 3 convictions
R. Racing Club or draw74.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.34
Over 1.5 goals73.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Over 8.5 corners58.9%Good chancePays @ 1.70
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on R. Racing Club, that gap is the story." Our engine prices R. Racing Club at 48% for 16 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. R. Racing Club are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.
Value & higher-risk angles
High risk
Over 2.5 goals47.8%@ 2.09
Over 10.5 corners37.7%@ 2.65
Medium risk
Draw or Villarreal CF52.5%@ 1.91
Under 2.5 goals52.2%@ 1.92
Both teams to score52.1%@ 1.92
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.9%@ 7.75
1-0 correct score10.7%@ 9.39
2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.88
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
R. Racing Club
47.5%
Draw
26.9%
Villarreal CF
25.6%
Model
Goals markets
★ StrongestOver 1.573.6%
Strong chance
Over 2.547.8%
Reasonable chance
BTTS · Yes52.1%
Good chance
Corners markets
Over 8.558.9%
Good chance
Over 9.548.0%
Reasonable chance
Over 10.537.7%
Toss-up
Over 11.528.6%
Low chance
Most cornersR. Racing Club 57.7% · Villarreal CF 31.6%
Totals line guide
0.5·1.573.6%2.547.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.6%
Discipline: NO_ODDS.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
R. Racing Club win2.18
Draw3.70
Villarreal CF win3.70
Both teams to score1.92
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.09
Over 3.5 goals3.83
R. Racing Club most2.18
Villarreal CF most3.70
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.63
Over 9.5 corners2.04
Over 10.5 corners2.68
R. Racing Club most1.73
Villarreal CF most3.15
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.56
Over 4.5 cards2.20
Over 5.5 cards3.46
R. Racing Club most2.82
Villarreal CF most2.20
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.07
Over 9.5 SoT2.76
R. Racing Club most1.69
Villarreal CF most3.49
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.65
Over 24.5 shots2.09
Over 26.5 shots2.80
Over 28.5 shots4.00
R. Racing Club most1.54
Villarreal CF most3.41
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.28
Over 22.5 fouls1.52
Over 24.5 fouls1.92
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.4% | Over 7.5 | 61.2% | Over 8.5 | 48.4% | Over 9.5 | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: R. Racing Club | 59.2% | Most: Villarreal CF | 28.6% | ||||
| R. Racing Club Over 4.2 | 53.3% | Villarreal CF Over 4.2 | 31.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 81.2% | Over 3.5 | 64.1% | Over 4.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: R. Racing Club | 35.5% | Most: Villarreal CF | 45.4% | ||
| R. Racing Club Over 1.8 | 60.9% | Villarreal CF Over 1.8 | 67.4% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 45.9% | draw | 27.1% | away | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 73.0% | 12 | 72.9% | X2 | 54.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 63.0% | away | 37.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.1% | no | 47.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 33.6% | away | 22.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 25.5% | away | 14.3% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.7% | home_by_2 | 14.1% | home_by_3plus | 9.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 16.4% | away_by_2 | 7.5% | away_by_3plus | 3.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.2% | 0-1 | 7.6% | 0-2 | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.6% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | 1-1 | 12.9% | 1-2 | 6.7% |
| 1-3 | 2.4% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 2-1 | 9.2% | 2-2 | 5.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.2% | 3-1 | 4.6% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.6% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 0.9% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.9% | under_0.5 | 8.2% | over_1.5 | 73.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.4% | over_2.5 | 47.8% | under_2.5 | 52.2% |
| over_3.5 | 26.1% | under_3.5 | 73.9% | over_4.5 | 12.1% |
| under_4.5 | 87.9% | over_5.5 | 4.8% | under_5.5 | 95.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.6% | under_0.5 | 22.4% | over_1.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.9% | over_2.5 | 19.0% | under_2.5 | 81.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 66.4% | under_0.5 | 33.6% | over_1.5 | 29.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.3% | over_2.5 | 9.8% | under_2.5 | 90.2% |
most
| home | 45.9% | draw | 27.1% | away | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 9.2% | away_+2.5 | 90.8% | home_-1.5 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 76.8% | home_-0.5 | 45.9% | away_+0.5 | 54.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.0% | away_-0.5 | 27.0% | home_+1.5 | 89.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 10.6% | home_+2.5 | 96.8% | away_-2.5 | 3.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.2% | exact_1 | 18.3% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 14.0% | exact_5 | 7.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.9% | draw | 42.2% | away | 21.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.9% | under_0.5 | 31.1% | over_1.5 | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.5% | over_2.5 | 11.3% | under_2.5 | 88.7% |
btts
| yes | 18.9% | no | 81.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.1% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.2% | exact_4plus | 3.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 38.1% | draw | 36.0% | away | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.3% | under_0.5 | 21.7% | over_1.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.9% | over_2.5 | 19.8% | under_2.5 | 80.2% |
btts
| yes | 28.0% | no | 72.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 28.7% | H/D | 5.3% | H/A | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.1% | D/D | 15.2% | D/A | 10.9% |
| A/H | 2.4% | A/D | 4.7% | A/A | 14.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.9% | under_7.5 | 27.1% | over_8.5 | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 38.7% | over_9.5 | 49.0% | under_9.5 | 51.0% |
| over_10.5 | 37.3% | under_10.5 | 62.7% | over_11.5 | 27.0% |
| under_11.5 | 73.0% | over_12.5 | 18.6% | under_12.5 | 81.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.4% | under_3.5 | 24.6% | over_4.5 | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.5% | over_5.5 | 45.2% | under_5.5 | 54.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.9% | under_3.5 | 42.1% | over_4.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.5% | over_5.5 | 25.9% | under_5.5 | 74.1% |
most
| home | 57.8% | draw | 10.5% | away | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.5% | away_+3.5 | 73.6% | home_-1.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.2% | home_-0.5 | 57.8% | away_+0.5 | 42.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.3% | away_-0.5 | 31.7% | home_+1.5 | 77.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.5% | home_+3.5 | 90.5% | away_-3.5 | 9.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 60.6% | under_22.5 | 39.4% | over_24.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 52.1% | over_26.5 | 35.7% | under_26.5 | 64.3% |
| over_28.5 | 25.0% | under_28.5 | 75.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.6% | under_10.5 | 26.4% | over_12.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.7% | over_14.5 | 40.7% | under_14.5 | 59.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.6% | under_10.5 | 50.4% | over_12.5 | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.5% | over_14.5 | 18.0% | under_14.5 | 82.0% |
most
| home | 64.8% | draw | 5.8% | away | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.4% | away_+4.5 | 60.6% | home_-2.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.8% | home_-0.5 | 64.8% | away_+0.5 | 35.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.6% | away_-0.5 | 29.4% | home_+2.5 | 80.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.3% | home_+4.5 | 88.4% | away_-4.5 | 11.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.4% | under_6.5 | 26.6% | over_7.5 | 61.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 38.8% | over_8.5 | 48.4% | under_8.5 | 51.6% |
| over_9.5 | 36.2% | under_9.5 | 63.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.2% | under_3.5 | 29.8% | over_4.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.7% | over_5.5 | 37.1% | under_5.5 | 62.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.1% | under_3.5 | 50.9% | over_4.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.0% | over_5.5 | 17.6% | under_5.5 | 82.4% |
most
| home | 59.2% | draw | 12.1% | away | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 33.8% | away_+2.5 | 66.2% | home_-0.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.8% | home_+0.5 | 71.4% | away_-0.5 | 28.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.9% | away_-2.5 | 11.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 81.2% | under_2.5 | 18.8% | over_3.5 | 64.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 35.9% | over_4.5 | 45.4% | under_4.5 | 54.6% |
| over_5.5 | 28.9% | under_5.5 | 71.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 60.9% | under_1.5 | 39.1% | over_2.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 67.4% | under_1.5 | 32.6% | over_2.5 | 41.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 58.3% |
most
| home | 35.5% | draw | 19.1% | away | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.7% | away_+1.5 | 80.3% | home_-0.5 | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.5% | home_+0.5 | 54.6% | away_-0.5 | 45.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.4% | away_-1.5 | 27.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 77.9% | under_20.5 | 22.1% | over_22.5 | 65.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 34.4% | over_24.5 | 51.9% | under_24.5 | 48.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 74.4% | under_9.5 | 25.6% | over_11.5 | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 44.8% | over_13.5 | 36.1% | under_13.5 | 63.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 77.7% | under_9.5 | 22.3% | over_11.5 | 59.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 40.5% | over_13.5 | 40.4% | under_13.5 | 59.6% |
most
| home | 43.4% | draw | 7.0% | away | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.5% | away_+3.5 | 75.5% | home_-0.5 | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.6% | home_+2.5 | 64.0% | away_-2.5 | 36.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 21.0% | no | 79.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.9% | no | 89.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 11.4% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).
More: R. Racing Club predictions · Villarreal CF predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.