Premier League
Leeds vs 
Crystal Palace Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 50.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 74.4% for over 7.5 to 21.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.7%. On the corner count, Leeds are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.9%, with a level count at 9.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 40.4% | 59.7% |
| 11.5 corners | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| 12.5 corners | 21.5% | 78.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.5%
60.2%
45.8%
60.0%
43.5%
29.3%
Corner handicap
| Leeds line | Leeds | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| -1.5 | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| -0.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| +0.5 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Leeds.
In-depth analysis
51.7%Over 9.5 corners60.2%Leeds over 4.5 corners43.5%Crystal Palace over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalBy team, Leeds over 4.5 corners sits at 60.2% and Crystal Palace at 43.5%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.7% for Leeds vs Crystal Palace.
Which team will win the corner count in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
The model rates Leeds to win the corner count at 55.9%, with a level count at 9.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,756 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 16 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
