Serie A
Lazio vs 
Monza Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 48.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 60.6% for over 22.5 to 26.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.5%. On the shot count, Lazio are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.3%, with a level count at 5.9%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 24.5 shots | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 26.6% | 73.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
69.4%
53.2%
37.5%
54.2%
36.9%
22.9%
Shot handicap
| Lazio line | Lazio | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| -2.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| -0.5 | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| +0.5 | 64.2% | 35.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 70.6% | 29.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 59.4% | 40.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 37.4% | 62.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
5.4 / 7.4
7.4 / 6.8
This season (2026/27)
12.8Lazio shots per game13.0Lazio shots faced per game5.4Lazio first-half shots7.4Lazio second-half shots14.4Monza shots per game11.8Monza shots faced per game7.4Monza first-half shots6.8Monza second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Lazio.
In-depth analysis
48.5%Over 24.5 shots53.2%Lazio over 12.5 shots36.9%Monza over 12.5 shots59.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Lazio over 12.5 shots sits at 53.2% and Monza at 36.9%. This season Lazio have averaged 12.8 shots a game and Monza 14.4. Lazio take 5.4 shots before half-time and 7.4 after, Monza 7.4 and 6.8.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Lazio vs Monza?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 48.5% for Lazio vs Monza.
Which team will have more shots in Lazio vs Monza?
The model rates Lazio to take more shots at 58.3%.
Do Lazio shoot more in the first or second half?
Lazio average 5.4 shots before half-time and 7.4 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,771 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
