Serie A
Lazio vs 
Monza Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 55.4%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Lazio have averaged 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Monza 1.2 and 2.6 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 44.6% for over 2.5 and 71.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Lazio have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Monza in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 90.9% | 9.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 71.1% | 29.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 10.4% | 89.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 4.0% | 96.0% |
Team goal lines
79.2%
46.6%
21.0%
58.9%
22.4%
6.1%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.8% | 25.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.1% | 83.9% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.8% | 82.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Lazio goals scored per game0.6Lazio goals conceded per game40.0%Lazio Over 2.5 rate0.8Lazio 1st-half goals per game1.6Monza goals scored per game2.4Monza goals conceded per game80.0%Monza Over 2.5 rate1.0Monza 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
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5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
47.3%Both Teams to Score44.6%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 44.6% for three or more goals and 71.1% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Lazio favoured at 54.9%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Lazio to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Lazio 3 · 2 draws · Monza 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lazio vs Monza?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 44.6% for Lazio vs Monza.
Will there be a first-half goal in Lazio vs Monza?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 74.8%.
How often have Lazio gone over 2.5 recently?
Lazio have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Monza in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
