Serie A
Lazio vs 
Monza Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 39.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 61.5% for over 7.5 to 15.2% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.1%. Head to head on corners, Lazio are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.2%, with a level count at 10.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 8.5 corners | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 39.3% | 60.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 21.6% | 78.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 15.2% | 84.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
65.7%
50.9%
37.4%
50.8%
35.2%
22.9%
Corner handicap
| Lazio line | Lazio | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 25.4% | 74.6% |
| -1.5 | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| -0.5 | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| +0.5 | 65.6% | 34.4% |
This season (2026/27)
5.0Lazio corners won per game4.3Lazio corners conceded per game3.8Monza corners won per game4.0Monza corners conceded per gameCorners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Lazio.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
39.3%Over 9.5 corners50.9%Lazio over 4.5 corners35.2%Monza over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Lazio over 4.5 corners sits at 50.9% and Monza at 35.2%. This season Lazio have averaged 5.0 corners won a game and Monza 3.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Lazio vs Monza?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 39.3% for Lazio vs Monza.
Which team will win the corner count in Lazio vs Monza?
The model rates Lazio to win the corner count at 55.2%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How many corners do Lazio and Monza average this season?
Lazio have won 5.0 corners a game this season and Monza 3.8.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 3,416 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Corners actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Serie A, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
