Süper Lig
Kocaelispor vs 
Gaziantep Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 14.0% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Kocaelispor have averaged 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, Gaziantep 1.4 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 34.6% for over 2.5 and 62.3% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 13.7% |
| 0-0 | 13.1% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
| 1-2 | 6.2% |
| 0-2 | 5.3% |
Score probability grid
| Kocaelispor \ Gaziantep | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 11% | 5% | 2% | · | · |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | 6% | 2% | · | · |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Kocaelispor goals, columns = Gaziantep. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14.0%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
42.1%Both Teams to Score34.6%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 34.6% for three or more goals and 62.3% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Kocaelispor favoured at 40.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kocaelispor 1 · 0 draws · Gaziantep 1 · 2.5 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep?
The model's most likely scoreline for Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep is 1-1 at 14.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Süper Lig, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
