Süper Lig
Kasimpasa vs 
Konyaspor Shots
Result
We called Over 24.5 at 52.6% and it missed (24 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 62.2% and it missed (6 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 52.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 64.7% for over 22.5 to 29.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. Between the two sides, Kasimpasa are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.0%, with a level count at 5.7%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 40.7% | 59.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 29.7% | 70.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.1%
58.6%
42.6%
54.6%
37.0%
22.7%
Shot handicap
| Kasimpasa line | Kasimpasa | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| -2.5 | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| -0.5 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| +0.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 38.1% | 61.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
11.4Kasimpasa shots per game14.0Kasimpasa shots faced per game11.8Konyaspor shots per game15.2Konyaspor shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Kasimpasa.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
52.6%Over 24.5 shots58.6%Kasimpasa over 12.5 shots37.0%Konyaspor over 12.5 shots62.2%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Kasimpasa over 12.5 shots sits at 58.6% and Konyaspor at 37.0%. This season Kasimpasa have averaged 11.4 shots a game and Konyaspor 11.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Kasimpasa vs Konyaspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 52.6% for Kasimpasa vs Konyaspor.
Which team will have more shots in Kasimpasa vs Konyaspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated Kasimpasa to take more shots at 62.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
