AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 20 Oct 2026

Serie A
JuventusJuventusWDLWD
Full time0-3Sun, 18 Oct 202618/1019:45UK16°C · Cloudy
LazioLazioWWDWW

Juventus 0-3 Lazio expected goals (xg): our prediction vs the result

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Juventus1.94

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Lazio1.88

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Result

Juventus0-3Lazio
0.60 – 0.82 xGUnderstat

The match produced 0.60 xG for Juventus and 0.82 xG for Lazio, against a final score of 0-3. The scoreline and the chances told different stories.

Expected Goals (xG)

Juventus have created 1.94 xG and scored 1.50 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG. Lazio have created 1.88 xG and scored 1.83 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

JuventusJuventus

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

LazioLazio
Statistic
Juventus
Lazio
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.94
1.88

xG conceded per game
0.49
1.49

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

JuventusJuventusLast 5
W
Win · 2-0
D
Draw · 1-1
L
Loss · 2-3
W
Win · 2-0
D
Draw · 1-1

2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss

LazioLazioLast 5
W
Win · 1-0
W
Win · 2-1
D
Draw · 2-2
W
Win · 2-0
W
Win · 3-1

4 wins · 1 draw · 0 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1JuventusJuventus wins
2Draws
2LazioLazio wins
1.8Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
JuventusJuventus
2 – 2
LazioLazio
LazioLazio
1 – 0
JuventusJuventus
LazioLazio
1 – 1
JuventusJuventus
JuventusJuventus
1 – 0
LazioLazio
LazioLazio
1 – 0
JuventusJuventus

Match outlook

PickJuventus51.2%
Draw27.4%
Lazio21.4%

The model leans Juventus to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

51.2%Favoured: Juventus
46.2%Both Teams to Score
42.5%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

JuventusJuventus (1)
Edon Zhegrova
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
9.3%
10.75
1+ shot on target
49.2%
2.03
2+ shots
39.2%
2.55
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.76
On target1.88
Goals0.27
LazioLazio (1)
Andrea Pinamonti
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
23.4%
4.27
1+ shot on target
56.5%
1.77
2+ shots
60.2%
1.66
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots2.51
On target1.03
Goals0.33

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Serie A, Expected Goals (xG)

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Related

Serie AJuventus fixtures and statsLazio fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.