Premier League
Hull vs 
Aston Villa Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 52.3% and it missed (7 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 50.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 75.0% for over 7.5 to 21.8% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.3%. Head to head on corners, Hull are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 51.0%, with a level count at 10.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| 10.5 corners | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| 11.5 corners | 30.5% | 69.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 21.8% | 78.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
72.1%
57.2%
42.5%
64.1%
47.9%
33.4%
Corner handicap
| Hull line | Hull | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| -0.5 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| +0.5 | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| +1.5 | 70.5% | 29.5% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Hull.
In-depth analysis
By team, Hull over 4.5 corners sits at 57.2% and Aston Villa at 47.9%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Hull vs Aston Villa?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 52.3% for Hull vs Aston Villa.
Which team will win the corner count in Hull vs Aston Villa?
Before kickoff, the model rated Hull to win the corner count at 51.0%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.