Heerenveen 4-0 Excelsior correct score: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Heerenveen4-0Excelsior
Final score 4-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 1.7%.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 11.2%1-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Heerenveen goals, columns = Excelsior goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%.
Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Most likely scorelines
- 1-111.2%
- 2-19.2%
- 1-27.4%
- 1-07.2%
- 2-06.7%
- 2-26.3%
- 0-15.7%
- 3-15.3%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Rows: Heerenveen · Columns: Excelsior
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
D
L
D
W
L
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
W
D
L
D
L
1 win · 2 draws · 2 losses
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 11.2% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Heerenveen have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, Excelsior 1.8 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 59.9% for over 2.5 and 82.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 59.9% for three or more goals and 82.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Heerenveen favoured at 45.1%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
What was the score in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
