League TwoGrimsby vs Crawley Town Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 54.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 77.8% for over 7.5 to 25.2% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.9%. On the corner count, Grimsby are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.0%, with a level count at 10.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| 10.5 corners | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 11.5 corners | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| 12.5 corners | 25.2% | 74.8% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.9%
64.1%
49.5%
63.0%
46.2%
31.4%
Corner handicap
| Grimsby line | Grimsby | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 27.1% | 72.9% |
| -1.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| -0.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| +0.5 | 67.1% | 32.9% |
This season (2026/27)
7.2Grimsby corners won per game4.8Grimsby corners conceded per game4.2Crawley Town corners won per game4.7Crawley Town corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Grimsby.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
56.3%Over 9.5 corners64.1%Grimsby over 4.5 corners46.2%Crawley Town over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Grimsby over 4.5 corners sits at 64.1% and Crawley Town at 46.2%. This season Grimsby have averaged 7.2 corners won a game and Crawley Town 4.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Grimsby vs Crawley Town?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 56.3% for Grimsby vs Crawley Town.
Which team will win the corner count in Grimsby vs Crawley Town?
The model rates Grimsby to win the corner count at 57.0%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Grimsby and Crawley Town average this season?
Grimsby have won 7.2 corners a game this season and Crawley Town 4.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
