League TwoGrimsby vs Crawley Town Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Grimsby or Draw (82.9%), landed.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Draw at 82.9%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Grimsby are favoured at 59.3%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Grimsby by 1 | 24.5% |
| Grimsby by 2 | 18.5% |
| Grimsby by 3+ | 16.3% |
| Crawley Town by 1 | 11.5% |
| Crawley Town by 2 | 4.3% |
| Crawley Town by 3+ | 1.4% |
| Draw | 23.6% |
Goal handicap
| Grimsby line | Grimsby | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 16.3% | 83.7% |
| -1.5 | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| -0.5 | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| +0.5 | 82.9% | 17.1% |
This season (2026/27)
1.5Grimsby goals scored per game1.0Grimsby goals conceded per game1.0Crawley Town goals scored per game1.8Crawley Town goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Grimsby or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
49.3%Both Teams to Score50.5%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Grimsby are favoured at 59.3%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Grimsby 2 · 1 draws · Crawley Town 2 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Grimsby vs Crawley Town?
Home or Draw was the highest-probability cover at 82.9%; it landed, final score 2-0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,075 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
