Pro League
Gent vs Standard Liège Shots
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 56.7%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 68.3% for over 22.5 to 33.7% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.9%. Between the two sides, Gent are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.3%, with a level count at 5.6%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 68.3% | 31.8% |
| 24.5 shots | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 33.7% | 66.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
75.8%
60.8%
45.2%
57.9%
40.5%
25.8%
Shot handicap
| Gent line | Gent | Standard Liège |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| -2.5 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| -0.5 | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| +0.5 | 66.9% | 33.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 38.1% | 61.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Gent.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
56.7%Over 24.5 shots60.8%Gent over 12.5 shots40.5%Standard Liège over 12.5 shots62.0%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Gent over 12.5 shots sits at 60.8% and Standard Liège at 40.5%.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Gent vs Standard Liège?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 56.7% for Gent vs Standard Liège.
Which team will have more shots in Gent vs Standard Liège?
Before kickoff, the model rated Gent to take more shots at 61.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
