Pro League
Gent vs Standard Liège Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 46.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 67.8% for over 2.5 to 14.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.5%. On the card count, Standard Liège are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 21.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 27.8% | 72.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.6% | 85.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.0%
21.5%
56.9%
30.3%
Card handicap
| Gent line | Gent | Standard Liège |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| -0.5 | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| +0.5 | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| +1.5 | 74.4% | 25.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.4% | 71.6% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Gent vs Standard Liège. It tips Standard Liège for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
46.5%Over 3.5 cards16.1%Any red card47.0%Gent over 1.5 cards56.9%Standard Liège over 1.5 cards41.6%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Gent over 1.5 cards sits at 47.0% and Standard Liège at 56.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.1% (Gent 8.8%, Standard Liège 8.1%).
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Gent vs Standard Liège?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 46.5% for Gent vs Standard Liège.
Will there be a red card in Gent vs Standard Liège?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Gent vs Standard Liège?
Before kickoff, the model rated Standard Liège to pick up more cards at 45.8%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,197 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Pro League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
