Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Darmstadt42.3%
Win probability · fair 2.36
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely79.7%Fair 1.25
Draw or DarmstadtLikely67.9%Fair 1.47
Over 8.5 cornersLikely66.3%Fair 1.51
Model read
▾
"42% on Darmstadt is a measurement, not a promise." Our engine prices Darmstadt at 42% for 18 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Totals sit close to the fence: 56% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 60%. Wolfsburg are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Wolfsburg W2 D2 L1, Darmstadt W1 D1 L4. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners45.2%@ 2.21
Darmstadt win42.3%@ 2.36
Over 11.5 corners35.4%@ 2.82
Medium risk
Both teams to score59.5%@ 1.68
Wolfsburg or draw57.7%@ 1.73
Over 2.5 goals56.2%@ 1.78
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.9%@ 8.38
1-2 correct score9.0%@ 11.11
0-1 correct score7.8%@ 12.76
Model vs market
Wolfsburg
32.1%
Draw
25.6%
Darmstadt
42.3%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely79.7%Fair 1.25
Over 2.5Close call56.2%Fair 1.78
BTTS · YesClose call59.5%Fair 1.68
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely66.3%Fair 1.51
Over 9.5 cornersClose call55.7%Fair 1.80
Over 10.5 cornersClose call45.2%Fair 2.21
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely35.4%Fair 2.82
Most cornersWolfsburg52.3%Darmstadt37.0%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsVery likely79.2%Fair 1.26
Over 24.5 shotsLikely68.5%Fair 1.46
Over 26.5 shotsClose call56.4%Fair 1.77
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely43.9%Fair 2.28
Recent shot volume
Wolfsburg18.6 taken15.8 faced
Darmstadt13.2 taken15.5 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.579.7%2.556.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.7%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Wolfsburg win3.12
Draw3.91
Darmstadt win2.36
Both teams to score1.68
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.78
Over 3.5 goals2.96
Wolfsburg most3.12
Darmstadt most2.36
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.45
Over 9.5 corners1.74
Over 10.5 corners2.19
Wolfsburg most1.91
Darmstadt most2.70
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.28
Over 3.5 cards1.70
Over 4.5 cards2.53
Over 5.5 cards4.28
Wolfsburg most2.91
Darmstadt most2.20
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.20
Over 7.5 SoT1.36
Over 8.5 SoT1.60
Over 9.5 SoT1.99
Wolfsburg most1.77
Darmstadt most3.14
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.26
Over 24.5 shots1.46
Over 26.5 shots1.77
Over 28.5 shots2.28
Wolfsburg most1.66
Darmstadt most2.95
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.37
Over 22.5 fouls1.68
Over 24.5 fouls2.22
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
79.2%
Over 24.5
68.5%
Over 26.5
56.4%
Over 28.5
43.9%
Most: Wolfsburg
60.1%
Most: Darmstadt
33.9%
Wolfsburg Over 13.2
60.2%
Darmstadt Over 13.2
41.3%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
83.3%
Over 7.5
73.6%
Over 8.5
62.3%
Over 9.5
50.4%
Most: Wolfsburg
56.5%
Most: Darmstadt
31.9%
Wolfsburg Over 4.2
61.0%
Darmstadt Over 4.2
43.3%
Cards
Over 2.5
77.9%
Over 3.5
58.9%
Over 4.5
39.4%
Most: Wolfsburg
34.3%
Most: Darmstadt
45.5%
Wolfsburg Over 1.8
57.0%
Darmstadt Over 1.8
64.7%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Wolfsburg clean sheet
20.5%
Darmstadt clean sheet
25.7%
Wolfsburg win to nil
14.6%
Darmstadt win to nil
19.8%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
32.1%
draw
25.6%
away
42.3%
double_chance
1X
57.7%
12
74.4%
X2
67.9%
dnb
home
43.1%
away
56.9%
btts
yes
59.5%
no
40.5%
clean_sheet
home
20.5%
away
25.9%
win_to_nil
home
14.6%
away
20.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1
17.6%
home_by_2
9.4%
home_by_3plus
5.1%
away_by_1
20.7%
away_by_2
12.9%
away_by_3plus
8.8%
correct_score
0-0
5.9%
0-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
0-3
3.5%
0-4
1.4%
0-5
0.4%
1-0
6.6%
1-1
11.9%
1-2
9.0%
1-3
4.8%
1-4
1.9%
1-5
0.6%
2-0
4.9%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
6.1%
2-3
3.2%
2-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-0
2.2%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
2.7%
3-3
1.5%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
4-1
1.2%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.9%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
94.1%
under_0.5
5.9%
over_1.5
79.7%
under_1.5
20.3%
over_2.5
56.2%
under_2.5
43.8%
over_3.5
33.8%
under_3.5
66.2%
over_4.5
17.4%
under_4.5
82.6%
over_5.5
7.8%
under_5.5
92.2%
odd_even
odd
48.7%
even
51.3%
team_home
over_0.5
74.1%
under_0.5
25.9%
over_1.5
39.2%
under_1.5
60.8%
over_2.5
15.5%
under_2.5
84.5%
team_away
over_0.5
79.5%
under_0.5
20.5%
over_1.5
47.0%
under_1.5
53.0%
over_2.5
21.2%
under_2.5
78.8%
most
home
32.1%
draw
25.6%
away
42.3%
handicap
home_-2.5
5.1%
away_+2.5
94.9%
home_-1.5
14.5%
away_+1.5
85.5%
home_-0.5
32.1%
away_+0.5
67.9%
home_+0.5
57.7%
away_-0.5
42.3%
home_+1.5
78.4%
away_-1.5
21.7%
home_+2.5
91.2%
away_-2.5
8.8%
total_exact
exact_0
5.9%
exact_1
14.5%
exact_2
23.5%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
16.4%
exact_5
9.7%
exact_6
4.7%
exact_7plus
3.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
49.5%
draw
33.0%
away
17.5%
total
over_0.5
80.0%
under_0.5
20.0%
over_1.5
47.9%
under_1.5
52.1%
over_2.5
22.0%
under_2.5
78.1%
btts
yes
26.9%
no
73.1%
total_exact
exact_0
20.0%
exact_1
32.2%
exact_2
25.9%
exact_3
13.9%
exact_4plus
8.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
34.3%
draw
35.6%
away
30.1%
total
over_0.5
79.3%
under_0.5
20.7%
over_1.5
46.7%
under_1.5
53.3%
over_2.5
21.1%
under_2.5
78.9%
btts
yes
29.7%
no
70.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
39.5%
H/D
7.1%
H/A
2.9%
D/H
11.3%
D/D
11.8%
D/A
10.0%
A/H
1.6%
A/D
3.4%
A/A
12.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
79.3%
under_7.5
20.7%
over_8.5
69.0%
under_8.5
31.0%
over_9.5
57.5%
under_9.5
42.5%
over_10.5
45.7%
under_10.5
54.3%
over_11.5
34.7%
under_11.5
65.3%
over_12.5
25.1%
under_12.5
74.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
76.8%
under_3.5
23.2%
over_4.5
62.1%
under_4.5
37.9%
over_5.5
46.8%
under_5.5
53.2%
team_away
over_3.5
67.6%
under_3.5
32.4%
over_4.5
50.9%
under_4.5
49.1%
over_5.5
35.3%
under_5.5
64.7%
most
home
52.4%
draw
10.6%
away
37.1%
handicap
home_-3.5
22.8%
away_+3.5
77.2%
home_-1.5
41.7%
away_+1.5
58.3%
home_-0.5
52.4%
away_+0.5
47.6%
home_+0.5
62.9%
away_-0.5
37.1%
home_+1.5
72.6%
away_-1.5
27.4%
home_+3.5
87.2%
away_-3.5
12.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
79.2%
under_22.5
20.8%
over_24.5
68.5%
under_24.5
31.5%
over_26.5
56.4%
under_26.5
43.6%
over_28.5
43.9%
under_28.5
56.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
82.7%
under_10.5
17.3%
over_12.5
68.4%
under_12.5
31.6%
over_14.5
51.8%
under_14.5
48.2%
team_away
over_10.5
68.5%
under_10.5
31.5%
over_12.5
50.2%
under_12.5
49.8%
over_14.5
33.1%
under_14.5
66.9%
most
home
60.2%
draw
5.9%
away
33.9%
handicap
home_-4.5
35.3%
away_+4.5
64.7%
home_-2.5
47.6%
away_+2.5
52.4%
home_-0.5
60.2%
away_+0.5
39.9%
home_+0.5
66.1%
away_-0.5
33.9%
home_+2.5
76.8%
away_-2.5
23.2%
home_+4.5
85.2%
away_-4.5
14.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
83.3%
under_6.5
16.7%
over_7.5
73.6%
under_7.5
26.4%
over_8.5
62.3%
under_8.5
37.7%
over_9.5
50.4%
under_9.5
49.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
76.4%
under_3.5
23.6%
over_4.5
61.0%
under_4.5
39.0%
over_5.5
45.0%
under_5.5
55.0%
team_away
over_3.5
61.4%
under_3.5
38.6%
over_4.5
43.3%
under_4.5
56.7%
over_5.5
27.7%
under_5.5
72.3%
most
home
56.5%
draw
11.6%
away
31.9%
handicap
home_-2.5
32.9%
away_+2.5
67.1%
home_-0.5
56.5%
away_+0.5
43.5%
home_+0.5
68.1%
away_-0.5
31.9%
home_+2.5
86.0%
away_-2.5
14.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
77.9%
under_2.5
22.1%
over_3.5
59.0%
under_3.5
41.1%
over_4.5
39.5%
under_4.5
60.6%
over_5.5
23.4%
under_5.5
76.6%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
57.0%
under_1.5
43.0%
over_2.5
30.0%
under_2.5
70.0%
team_away
over_1.5
64.7%
under_1.5
35.3%
over_2.5
37.9%
under_2.5
62.1%
most
home
34.3%
draw
20.2%
away
45.5%
handicap
home_-1.5
18.0%
away_+1.5
82.0%
home_-0.5
34.3%
away_+0.5
65.7%
home_+0.5
54.5%
away_-0.5
45.5%
home_+1.5
73.3%
away_-1.5
26.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
73.1%
under_20.5
26.9%
over_22.5
59.5%
under_22.5
40.6%
over_24.5
45.1%
under_24.5
54.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
73.0%
under_9.5
27.0%
over_11.5
53.1%
under_11.5
46.9%
over_13.5
33.7%
under_13.5
66.3%
team_away
over_9.5
72.6%
under_9.5
27.5%
over_11.5
52.6%
under_11.5
47.4%
over_13.5
33.2%
under_13.5
66.8%
most
home
46.7%
draw
7.3%
away
46.0%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.5%
away_+3.5
73.5%
home_-0.5
46.7%
away_+0.5
53.3%
home_+2.5
67.9%
away_-2.5
32.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
22.5%
no
77.5%
home
yes
15.8%
no
84.2%
away
yes
7.9%
no
92.1%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
2. Bundesliga
Wolfsburg
Darmstadt