Pro League
Genk vs 
Gent Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 12.0% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Genk have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, Gent 2.0 and 0.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 52.9% for over 2.5 and 77.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
| 0-0 | 6.7% |
| 1-2 | 6.5% |
| 0-1 | 6.3% |
| 2-2 | 5.4% |
Score probability grid
| Genk \ Gent | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 6% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 10% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Genk goals, columns = Gent. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
55.3%Both Teams to Score52.9%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 52.9% for three or more goals and 77.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Genk favoured at 49.5%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Genk 3 · 2 draws · Gent 0 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Genk vs Gent?
The model's most likely scoreline for Genk vs Gent is 1-1 at 12.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Pro League, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.