Süper Lig
Galatasaray vs 
Kasimpasa Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 56.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 68.3% for over 22.5 to 32.8% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.3%. Head to head on shots, Galatasaray are the model’s pick to have more shots at 75.1%, with a level count at 4.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 68.3% | 31.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| 28.5 shots | 32.8% | 67.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
82.8%
70.0%
55.0%
46.0%
28.9%
16.3%
Shot handicap
| Galatasaray line | Galatasaray | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| -2.5 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| -0.5 | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| +0.5 | 79.8% | 20.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 41.2% | 58.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
24.6Galatasaray shots per game10.6Galatasaray shots faced per game11.4Kasimpasa shots per game14.0Kasimpasa shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Galatasaray.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
56.5%Over 24.5 shots70.0%Galatasaray over 12.5 shots28.9%Kasimpasa over 12.5 shots65.0%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Galatasaray over 12.5 shots sits at 70.0% and Kasimpasa at 28.9%. This season Galatasaray have averaged 24.6 shots a game and Kasimpasa 11.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 56.5% for Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa.
Which team will have more shots in Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa?
The model rates Galatasaray to take more shots at 75.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
